🌵 The People's Email

We are out of the blocks and in a full sprint now. Phoenix and Las Vegas will be the epicenters of my world this week before we pop over to Riviera and find out what logo Tiger Woods is wearing.

We are 63 days away from the Masters. Get your gameface on.

Rick

PS — There are over 16,200 (!!) nerdy golf people who read this newsletter. You can join them by subscribing below.

🏆 Last Week’s Optimal Lineup

Wyndham Clark: $7,400 | 124.0 PTS
Ludvig Aberg: $9,000 | 101.0 PTS
Matthieu Pavon: $7,100 | 96.5 PTS
Thomas Detry: $6,600 | 90.0 PTS
Mark Hubbard: $6,300 | 88.0 PTS
Tom Hoge: $6,700 | 87.5 PTS
TOTAL: $43,100 | 587.0 PTS

📊 Topping The Charts

Two of the three best rounds of ‘24 both took place last week. Joaquin Niemann shot a 59 and gained 11.61 strokes to the field in R1 of LIV Mayakoba while Wyndham Clark fired a Saturday 60, gaining 9.08 strokes to the field.

Both would go on to win.

The round in the middle of that sandwich is Rory McIlroy’s R3 of the Dubai Desert Classic where he posted a +9.36 — also en route to victory.

Apologies to Paul Waring who has a Top 5 round this year and didn’t crack the Top 15 that week.

🦥 Stuck Like Glue

TPC Scottsdale has one of the “stickiest” course histories on the PGA TOUR — meaning that results (in both directions) have been quite predictive. It doesn’t rise to the level of Augusta National which is the Gold Standard of Course History but it’s in that next tier with the likes of Bay Hill.

With that being said, players who have gained strokes most frequently at TPC Scottsdale.

🎯 Let There Be Darts

The greens at TPC Scottsdale are easy to hit but the pins are difficult to access. At 7,000 sq. feet on average, they boast a 63.78% GIR rate — certainly reasonable by TOUR standards.

The differentiator is that it’s hard to hit it close to the pin. On the TOUR, 12.29% of all birdie opportunities come from 4’-8’. That number drops to 9.69% at TPC Scottsdale. The first range where TPC Scottsdale surrenders more birdie opportunities than average is from 27’-36’.

4’-8’: TPC 9.69% | Average: 12.29%
9-15’: TPC 16.09% | Average: 19.03%
16’-26’: TPC 19.80% | Average: 21.11%
27’-36’: TPC 12.33% | Average: 12.01%

To me, this is the most important factor when trying to find success at this course. On paper, you’d assume that the better approach players will be able to separate themselves from their peers by hitting it closer to the pin (duh). With that being more valuable this week, those golfers become more valuable.

That theory does hold up against the Winners Eye Test.

2023: Scottie Scheffler (1st in SG APP that season)
2022: Scottie Scheffler (4th)
2021: Brooks Koepka (25th)
2020: Webb Simpson (6th)
2019: Rickie Fowler (70th)
2018: Gary Woodland (24th)
2017: Hideki Matsuyama (5th)
2016: Hideki Matsuyama (3rd)
2015: Brooks Koepka (67th)

There are some pretty prolific ball-strikers on that list.

🍳 High Rollers, Step Right Up!

When I started creating season-long one & done leagues, I received a lot of similar feedback: “this is great, but how about a higher buy-in?”.

You’ve asked, I’ve answered.

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👀 Segment Payouts & Bonuses
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If we can fill this, first place will be $200,000 with first place hovering around $54,000 right now.

😴Don’t Nap On Knapp

Jake Knapp did something truly special in his last start. He finished T3 at the Farmers Insurance Open but how he did it was much more impressive.

He had three straight rounds, the only measured rounds, where he gained in each Strokes Gained Category. That’s gaining off-the-tee, on approach, around-the-green and putting each round for three straight rounds.

There have been 97 such rounds by all golfers in 2024, but no one has done it more frequently than Knapp. His three “all-around rounds” is the same number as Aaron Rai, Ben An and Eric Cole.

Neither Cole nor Rai have done it twice in the same event.
An did it twice at the Sony but it was rounds 1 & 4.

So Knapp is the only one who has done it for consecutive rounds and he did it in all three at the same event.

I don’t know what any of this means, but color me impressed.

🏇 Coming Down The Home Stretch!

The back nine at TPC Scottsdale is pure chaos.

Four of the six easiest holes AND the three most difficult holes on the course all reside on the back nine. That means you’re going to see some massive runs, in both directions. No lead is safe and there’s no such thing as “too far back”.

On another note, this would be a phenomenal Match Play course — ya know, if anyone was into that sort of thing.

 🎰 LIV Heads To Sin City

LIV Golf heads to Las Vegas for their second event of the 2024 season. I have to admit, I love Las Vegas Country Club and will be interested to see how the field handles it.

This is not desert golf. In fact, this is an old-school, tree lined course with not a grain of desert sand in sight. It’s long, thick rough everywhere that they’ve been growing out for months. I played here ~two months ago and it was already pretty gnarly.

Here’s an example of the tree-lined fairways that will be a hazard this week. It makes the fairways effectively smaller and requires multiple shot-shapes. Also, a little inside information, the roots of these trees are old and extend out noticeably farther than the branches. Meaning there’s an additional hazard if your ball comes to rest on a root.

I believe this week will be won by a great driver. Think … Jon Rahm but also a sneaky Dean Burmester who won back-to-back on the DP World Tour in December and finished T3 last week in Mayakoba.

⭐ Quick Hits

• The Weekly Tiers contest is LIVE with a guaranteed prize purse. It’s $20/entry and you pick golfers from six different tiers.

• You can read my TPC Scottsdale statistical profile in my written preview on RickRunGood.com.

• This week’s Live Chat will be early on Wednesday, kicking off at 8:30am ET on my YouTube Channel.

• This week features four rounds of ShotLink which means my Live Leaderboard (with full shot-tracking) will be your best friend.