🎠 Circle The Wagons

📢 Fore, Please:

• If your O&D Season is going horribly (like mine), you now have a second chance. There’s a new $50 O&D starting at the PGA Championship and running through the BMW Championship. I’ve heard your feedback and the payout structure is much flatter.

  • You can sign-up here: https://bit.ly/44pB7DP

🏆 Last Week’s Optimal Lineup

Taylor Pendrith: $7,400| 147.0 PTS
Ben Kohles: $6,300 | 129.0 PTS
SH Kim: $7,100 | 126.5 PTS
Ben An: $9,300 | 124.5 PTS
Matt Wallace: $6,900 | 123.0 PTS
Alex Noren: $9,500 | 122.0 PTS
TOTAL: $46,500 | 772.0 PTS

🐿️ Chipping His Way To Victory

Taylor Pendrith found the Winner’s Circle for the first time in his PGA TOUR career last week in Dallas. He was buoyed by the best short-game week of his career, gaining 7.883 strokes around-the-green and with the putter.

That’s the first time in his career that he’s even gained 7+ strokes in those categories and only the sixth time he has gained 5+. that makes sense considering he chipped in for consecutive eagles on Saturday and holed out from a bunker on Sunday. He needed all of them, beating Ben Kohles by one shot.

His Sunday stat line was even mark remarkable considering he lost 1.62 strokes on approach. That makes him only the ninth golfer to lose 1+ strokes on approach in the final round and still win — since the start of the 2020 season.

It was the 5th worst Sunday approach round for any winner during that period.

😴 No Snorin’ On Noren

Alex Noren put up one of the best tournaments that we’ve seen from a statistical standpoint in quite some time. Noren was great … at everything. He gained:

+3.01 off-the-tee
+2.28 on approach
+2.30 around-the-green
+2.84 putting

There are only 34 instances since the start of 2020 where a golfer has gained 3+ off-the-tee and 2+ in each of the other three SG categories. Of those 34 instances, the golfer went on to win 20x. Noren finished 3rd.

If you use Noren’s exact numbers in each category, there are only nine other instances of a golfer being that well-rounded throughout the bag.

Of those ten instances, seven were winners.

🧑‍🍳 Brooks Is Brewing

Last week in Singapore, Brooks Koepka notched his second consecutive LIV Top 10 and his third Top 5 of the year — but this one felt different.

Maybe because he was in control basically wire-to-wire. Maybe because he called his Masters performance “an embarrassment”. Or maybe it was because he had his second best putting week since the start of 2023.

Koepka has been mired in a putting slump, to the point he has switched putters — abandoning his long-time Scotty Cameron Teryllium NP2. That might be the ticket.

Koepka (+2000) now enters the PGA Championship fresh off a win and with a new found confidence in his game.

🔥 Prop It Like It’s Hot!

There’s so much great history at Quail Hollow, so these are the weeks I really enjoy building a bunch of Underdog Lineups. The one below is a 14.89x return ($100 to return $1,489) or you can split it up however you see fit.

Tail or Fade: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/es-65G610U0fg
(This includes a $100 deposit match if you use the code “RICK”)

Jason Day: 3.5 Bogeys or Worse (Higher) ⬆️
Day has lost strokes on approach in six straight events and has missed his last two cuts at Quail Hollow. His game is trending in the wrong direction and now he’s going to face one of his toughest tests yet.

Xander Schauffele: 3.0 Bogeys or Worse (Lower) ⬇️
It’s rare to see Schauffele but a square on his scorecard, doing so at only 9.4% of the time — the third lowest rate on the PGA TOUR. His well-rounded game doesn’t usually generate multiple bad shots in a row and that should be well-rewarded at Quail Hollow.

Chris Kirk: 72.5 Strokes (Lower) ⬇️
Kirk has only played five times since Riviera, but he’s been very solid in every start. He’s notched (4) Top 28 finishes during that run with his best two (T16, T10) coming in his two most recent events.

Brian Harman: 71.5 Strokes (Lower) ⬇️
There are certainly concerns about Harman’s approach slump but his short-game is magic and it’s carried him to a R2 at THE PLAYERS, T25 at the Texas Open and T12 at the RBC Heritage. With the low GIR rate this week, short-game will be heavily rewarded.

Rory McIlroy: 3.5 Birdies or Better (Higher) ⬆️
McIlroy was built for Quail Hollow and his results prove that. Three times a winner at this event and now he’s entering with his Zurich Classic win as a confidence and momentum booster.

Tail or Fade: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/es-65G610U0fg

🩲 The True Quail Man

Rory McIlroy (+650) has shredded, I repeat, shredded Quail Hollow in his career. Over 46 rounds, including the 2017 PGA Championship, McIlroy has gained 2.53 strokes per round. That is staggering for that many rounds played.

Here are the only other golfers who have a 2.22+ SG/round at a specific course with at least 40 rounds.

Not bad!

🤢 Taming The Green Mile

The final three holes at Quail Hollow are dubbed “The Green Mile” but it should be renamed to “The Green Monster” because the field will have their hands full this week.

That stretch is routinely one of the most difficult three hole stretches on TOUR and it played roughly 0.75 strokes over par, per round, last year. Meaning if you played them in 2-over for the week, you picked up a shot on the field.

However, there are some players who have been better on those holes than others.

Dating back to 2018, Brendon Todd (!!) has gained the most strokes on the field at The Green Mile of anyone teeing it up this week. It’s no surprise to see Rory McIlroy, Adam Scott and Viktor Hovland next on that list.

The players who have struggled the most — Jordan Spieth (by a mile), Eric Cole, Brian Harman and Sungjae Im. The full list is above.

⛱️ The Golf Capital of the World

There’s a brand new event on the PGA TOUR schedule this week, which will run opposite of the Wells Fargo Championship. It’s called the Myrtle Beach Classic and it’ll be held at The Dunes Golf & Beach Club.

Despite the name, there’s really not that much sand on the course at all. I pictured Congaree but got a tree-lined golf course instead. There are a few golfers who stand out to me this week:

Ben Griffin (+2800): His only missed cut since THE PLAYERS came at the Zurich Classic, a team event. He’s popped (3) Top 20s in his last five starts as an individual and he’s excellent from fairway through green. He’s also a crusher on bermudagrass:

Thriston Lawrence (+6000): He’s technically been the best player in this field over the last 36 rounds, gaining 1.55 strokes/rd to the field. The caveat is that nearly all of those rounds have come on the DP World Tour. But since the start of the new European season, he has (7) Top 20s in 11 events across the pond. His most notable finish was a T2 at the Dubai Invitational where he tied with someone you might have heard of (Rory McIlroy) and lost to someone else you may know (Tommy Fleetwood).

Justin Lower (+4000) has quietly piled up (5) straight Top 28 finishes on TOUR. He snapped out of a tee-to-green slump and has been positive in each of his last three measured events. He’s been great in weak fields this year, finishing T3 in Mexico and T4 in Puntacana.

🪙 Scottie Saving Some For The Rest of Us

Scottie Scheffler will not be winning this week — I’m sure of it. It helps because he’s not in the field which means the largest share of the $20,000,000 purse will go to someone new this week!

There are some really interesting dynamics for O&D this week. The three best players in the field have all been used by ~50% of players — McIlroy (44% usage), Schauffele (55% usage), Aberg (46% usage).

If you have one of those guys available, it’s time to pull the trigger.

The next best option might be Wyndham Clark who lit Harbour Town on fire over the course of the final three rounds. After losing 2.6 strokes to the field on Thursday, Clark picked up 11.044 strokes over the final three days. That moved him up to T3 and now he’s back to defend his Wells Fargo Championship crown.

⭐ Before You Go …

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