🐍 Mamba Madness 🏀

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🏀Before We Begin …

There’s this weird thing that happened to me five years ago when I made a silly little YouTube video about using math to create the Optimal March Madness Bracket.

The video did fine, in terms of views, but the bracket crushed.
The next year I did it again, to 2x the number of views and the bracket crushed.
The next year I did it again, to 2x the number of views and the bracket crushed.
The next year I did it again, to 2x the number of views and the bracket crushed.

Long story short, I’m now wrapped into the madness of College Basketball for one week where I create a video that will be the most popular single video I post every year.

That video is now live and you can watch it here.

To give you an idea of how it works, it’s simply comparing the probability of an event to occur (teams to advance) to the amount of people who are choosing that event to happen (pick popularity). The biggest differences are leverage.

Here are a few high leverage examples:

• Over 66% of brackets have Auburn to make the Sweet 16 but only 13% of brackets have them advancing to the Elite 8. This is despite their odds of advancing to the E8 being 27% which is more likely than Duke, Alabama, Baylor and Gonzaga — all of which are being selected in more brackets.

• Over 26% of brackets have Arizona making the Final Four but only 9% have them advancing to the Championship Game, despite their implied odds saying that they will make the Championship 13.3% of the time. The reasoning, I assume, is because they would run into UCONN in their F4 matchup. Despite being the favorites, the likelihood of UCONN even making the Final 4 is still a coinflip (45.7%) so Arizona is being penalized for a matchup that may never occur.

If you’ve made it this far, congrats —- I’m speaking your language. And if you’re this deep, you probably want to use the PoolGenius tool for this year that does all of this and then some. It will allow you to put in your league format and it’ll pump out a variety of optimal brackets for you.

This is the first year I’ve used it and it’s even better than I could have imagined. Since I have a great relationship with PoolGenius (I consulted on their O&D tool), they gave my readers a discount of up to 55%. You can see the options here.

🏆 Last Week’s Optimal Lineup

Scottie Scheffler: $12,800 | 138.5 PTS
Matt Fitzpatrick: $8,200 | 122.5 PTS
Brian Harman: $7,900 | 122.5 PTS
Wyndham Clark: $9,700 | 118.5 PTS
Sam Ryder: $5,600 | 97.0 PTS
Nate Lashley: $5,300 | 96.0 PTS
TOTAL: $49,500 | 695.0 PTS

🦆 Oh How The Turntables…

Just over a week ago, Scottie Scheffler couldn’t win and was frustrated to the point where his head was about to explode.

He has a measly (kidding) 7 wins in 50 starts dating back to the start of 2022. That’s a disgusting 14% win rate which is basically second to only Tiger Woods.

Now he’s cashed in on 9 of 52, bumping his win rate to 17.3% and firmly supplanting him as the best player in the world.

Quickly how things change, huh? Or maybe nothing was ever wrong!

👓 Perception Is Reality

It’s nearly impossible to put into perspective how good Scottie Scheffler has been. At least, in golf terms.

So let’s try something new. Below is the 2023 NFL Passing Leaders (per game) adjusted in the same way that reflects Scottie Scheffler’s strokes gained numbers since January 1st, 2023 to the rest of the golf.

If Tua Tagovailoa had the same gap in passing yards as Scheffler has in strokes gained, he would have thrown for 914.8 yards per game last season. Let that sink in.

He would have thrown for 343 yards per game more than the next closest quarterback — Jared Goff.

The most yards ever averaged in a season by any quarterback is 342.3 by both Peyton Manning (2013) and Drew Brees (2011).

So the gap between QB1 and QB2 would have been the greatest passing yard season of all-time.

That is where we are at with Scottie Scheffler.

h/t to Kyle Porter for giving me the idea of comparing Scottie to things outside of golf.

🐍 Enter The Snake Pit

We’ve seen a few golfers play the role of “Snakecharmer” and tame the Copperhead Course in their careers. Here are the best players in this field at Innisbrook (min 16 rounds).

🥊 Sammy Three Rounds

Sam Burns has played 27 rounds in 2024 and gained 1.25 strokes/rd in the process. It’s the 6th best mark of any golfer with at least 20 rounds played on the PGA TOUR.

He has lost 1+ stroke to the field just five times this year, but when he loses, he loses big. The other problem is that his four worst rounds are all on Sundays.

He’s routinely put together three good rounds each week with one loop going sideways.

I don’t know what any of this “means” but my interpretation is that Burns is really close to putting it all together. And now he gets a confidence boost heading to a place where he’s been excellent.

☠️ Trending In The Right Direction…

I’m making a first round investment in two golfers that I believe will have good weeks — Tony Finau and Nick Taylor.

Tail or Fade: https://bit.ly/3IMwGZL

Finau R1 Strokes: 69.5 (Lower) ⬇️
Tony has started to fix the massive short-game hole in his game by gaining 0.796 strokes and 2.228 strokes in that facet over the last two weeks. His approach play has been elite all year and I expect him to bounce back after one of the worst driving weeks of his career at TPC Sawgrass.

Nick Taylor R1 Strokes: 70.5 (Lower) ⬇️
The Copperhead Course rewards strong iron play, which has been the blueprint for Taylor this year. He gained 3.6 strokes on approach last week and hasn’t lost in that category since The Sentry.

Tail or Fade: https://bit.ly/3IMwGZL

🎯The Newest Flusher

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is my current selection for “Most Improved of 2024”. His current calendar year is spectacular, gaining 1.50 strokes/rd with 0.89 of those coming from his approach play.

That is a full stroke per round improvement over his 2023 (+0.49) while becoming one of the better second-shot players on the TOUR.

The best part is that he hasn’t lost his DNA, as one of the more talented putters on the globe. He’s actually improved from +0.20/round in 2023 to +0.58 in 2024. That turned him from a Top 50 putter to a Top 25 putter.

The breakout is happening right in front of our eyes.

💳 Good, But Not Too Good

This is one of the most fascinating O&D weeks that we’ve had so far. Check out my options below.

Above is a screenshot from the PoolGenius tool that I consulted on and I recommend you check out.

Note that Xander Schauffele is my best player available but he’s too good to use at an event this small. I’m also in a pickle because I’ve used Sam Burns and Justin Thomas.

That leaves me with Jordan Spieth, Cameron Young and Brian Harman as my best options. There is a case to be made for all three but Harman is my likely selection. He’s playing well (off a T2) and there is plenty of a reward for keeping the ball in-play off-the-tee this week. He’s been great since coming to Florida and hopefully he can continue to putt confidently.

⭐ Before You Go …

• Please join me on YouTube for the Valspar Championship Live Chat on Wednesday at 3PM ET.

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