🐂 Texas Two Step

This is a big week for me personally and professionally. I’m gearing up to make my first trip to Augusta National next week and am absolutely thrilled about the opportunity.

I’ve also been working on a lot of new tools and projects that, honestly, have overwhelmed me a bit. I’m not asking for sympathy for someone who gets to talk about golf data for a living but just to reiterate how much I care about this. I want everything to be perfect. I want you all to enjoy this as much as I do. Monday got away from me this week so this email is a tad later than I would have liked.

You’re going to see a few new things featured below, but here are the bullet points:

• My website, RickRunGood.com, now has LIV Strokes Gained data along with more shot-by-shot information from the league.

• I released a new Cheat Sheet that communicates with the Golfer Profiles and Custom Model. I know some of you hate change, so I will maintain the legacy sheet..

• For the first time ever, I’ll be doing a marathon Live Stream on Saturday, drafting as many Major Best Ball teams as possible.

• SplashSports gave us the nod and made our contest the guaranteed contest for Majors. That’s $250,000 guaranteed — insane.

There will be more, their always is. If you have any questions, concerns or comments — hit reply and tell me.

Rick

🏆 Last Week’s Optimal Lineup

Stephan Jaeger: $8,900 | 114.5 PTS
Alejandro Tosti: $5,300 | 108.5 PTS
Scottie Scheffler: $13,000 | 107.0 PTS
Tony Finau: $9,900 | 104.0 PTS
Nick Dunlap: $5,800 | 94.5 PTS
Jacob Bridgeman: $5,500 | 88.5 PTS
TOTAL: $48,400 | 617.0 PTS

🪣 Jaegerbombs On Me!

Stephan Jaeger held off Scottie Scheffler to win the Houston Open. The common refrain from commentators was the ball-speed and distance increased for Jaeger this year. And while that’s true, let’s not discount his starting point.

Since January 1st, 2023, Jaeger has gained 0.39 strokes per round off-the-tee. That makes him the 14th best driver on TOUR during that span (min 100 rounds). He’s right between Vincent Norrman and Collin Morikawa.

So while it’s true that he made a big improvement in distance, his driver has always been a weapon.

🤞 So Close, Scottie

Scottie Scheffler had a 5’5” putt on the 72nd hole to force a playoff, but it went begging and missed left. Scottie will settle for a win-win-T2 lead-in form for the Masters.

2024: T2-WIN-WIN-T10-T3 (Finish: ?)
2023: 4-WIN-T4-T12-WIN (Finish: T10)
2022: WIN-T55-WIN-T7-WIN (Finish: WIN)
2021: T54-2nd-MC-5th-T20 (Finish: T18)
2020: T32-T17-T52-MC-T37 (Finish: T19)

Pretty sick that Scottie has won 7/15 events leading up to the Masters in the last three years.

The scariest part is that he’s gained strokes putting in six of his last seven starts and

💼 You’ll Like The Way It Pays, I Guarantee It.

Okay, I don’t guarantee it, but Splash does. Our little RickRunGood listeners league is getting a big boost for the Majors — starting with the Masters.

• $250,000 Guaranteed Prize Purse

• $100 Entry, Up to 83 entries

• Segment Payouts For Each Event

• HERE’S THE TWIST!!

This is a tiers contest, meaning you pick one golfer from each tier for all (4) Majors. BUT!!!! Once you use that golfer, you lose him. If you select Scottie Scheffler for the Masters, you cannot use him for the U.S. Open.

It’s basically if Tiers and O&D had a baby, this would be the result. I’ve never played in one of these, so I’m excited for the new strategy.

🐕‍🦺 The Final Tune-Up

Plenty is made about the event right before a Major Championship. Is this a “tune up”? Will golfers be “looking ahead”? Will they “have one eye on Magnolia Lane?”

Dating back to the start of 2019, Rory McIlroy has played the week immediately before a Major six different times. He’s gained 2.89 strokes per round and has won three of those events.

Of the 19 available “Lead-In Events”, Jordan Spieth has played in 11 of them — notching the 8th best SG/Rd of anyone in this field.

🧹 It’s Not Awards Season But…

If there was an award for “Low Key Best Golfer of the Year”, my vote goes to Ben An. Since the start of 2024, he’s the 16th best player on TOUR. Not in this field — ON TOUR.

I know what you’re thinking — “yeah okay Rick, but he is beating up on weak fields.” WRONG! In the four signature events, he’s gained 1.07 strokes/rd — the 4th best rate of anyone who has played all four.

“Okay fine, Rick — but he still can’t putt!” WRONG! He’s a positive putter this year, gaining 0.12 strokes/rd and has gained in six of his eight starts.

“Interesting, but he couldn’t possibly play well at TPC San Antonio.” WRONG! In his last three trips he’s gone: T6 - MC - T7.

“Wow, Rick — you are truly a genius and are also very handsome.” Okay, maybe I’ve gone too far, but you get the idea.

🌓 Halfway There!

Once Jordan Spieth tees off on Thursday, you’ve already won this prop. We just need something (or some things) to add to it.

Looking at last year’s numbers, TPC San Antonio played almost spot-on to par — playing at a 72.007 (+0.007) for the week. If we use that as our baseline, we can use strokes gained frequencies to find some opportunities.

My gut immediately goes to “highers”. Let’s look at this —

Corey Conners 69.5 R1 Score: Higher
He would need to shoot a 69, gaining ~3 strokes to the field to beat us. Even at TPC San Antonio, the best course on the planet for him, he’s only gained 3+ strokes to the field 41% of the time. And that feels like a completely unsustainable rate.

Hideki Matsuyama 69.5 R1 Score: Higher
Matsuyama has been awesome this year and I actually bet him to bet (+2000) but this is a pretty big ask. He’s gained 3+ strokes to the field just 20% of the time in San Antonio and has only cracked that magic number three out of his last 12 rounds. That’s during an unreal stretch! He’s very capable of losing this prop and still having an awesome week.

Rory McIlroy 69.0 R1 Score: Higher
The hook is important here. That means Rory has to fire a 68 to beat us. He gains 4+ strokes to the field just 19% of the time.

We are obviously making some assumptions about what the scoring average will be, but I think these are reasonable assumptions.

If you use the code “RICK” to sign-up at Underdog, you’ll get a $100 Deposit Match and I’ll be forever indebted to you.

🌤️ LIV Miami But Not For Teams!

LIV will head to Miami for their event this week — playing at Doral. The tour is familiar with Miami as a stop but this will be the first time that they play as individuals — since this has normally been the team championship venue.

It’s been a while but there are a good percentage of golfers who have history here:

It’s looking like another showdown between Dustin Johnson (+1600) and Brooks Koepka (+1400). Both have been rounding into form and have played well when teeing up here.

 🥑 Niemann is LIV’s Scottie

Last 8 Results: T4 - WIN - 3rd - T30 - WIN - T4 - WIN - 5th

No, these aren’t Scottie Scheffler’s results, that’s Joaquin Niemann. They’ve come across three different tours (LIV, DP World Tour, Asian Tour) and date back to the end of November. He literally played his way into two Majors, forcing the governing bodies to extend him a special invitation.

Since that stretch began, Niemann is gaining 3.01 strokes/rd to the field which is a half stroke better than the next best player on LIV (Oosthuizen) and a 1.25 strokes/rd better than the 4th best player on LIV (Casey).

He’s also improved his position each time he’s played the Masters:
CUT ➡️ T40 ➡️ 35th ➡️ T16 ➡️ ???

💤 Don’t Sleep On Carlos

If you’re looking for a sleeper in Miami, consider Carlos Ortiz (+3300). He won in Oman at the end of February and followed up with a T15 in Jeddah, T4 in Hong Kong and a 10th place finish in Macau. He’s been diligent about playing some of the bigger Asian Tour events alongside his LIV golf schedule.

👟 Grab Your Running Shoes

Because Saturday is marathon day!

I’ll be firing up a Live Show and drafting as many Major Championship Best Ball teams as possible. I’ll go until I run out of money or my nipples chafe, whichever comes first.

We’ll deep dive my exposure, strategy and much more. But we will also have a little fun. I’ve got some plans that will require me to draft teams in a specific way (good or bad!).

I welcome you to join the same drafts which will help us go through as many as possible.

You can draft teams on Underdog right now. There’s a $10 contest that pays $50,000 for first. Using code “RICK” will get you a $100 deposit match.

🍁 To Corey Or Not To Corey, That Is The Question.

It’s no surprise that Corey Conners is going to be the most popular O&D option this week, checking in right around 20%. After that, there’s two golfers in the mid-teens then a significant drop-off. Here’s the current projected O&D ownership:

1. Corey Conners: 19.6%

2. Ludvig Aberg: 14.4%

3. Hideki Matsuyama: 14.2%

4. Jordan Spieth: 6.3%

5. Billy Horschel: 5.7%

6. Alex Noren: 4.7%

7. Ben An: 4.5%

8. Matt Fitzpatrick: 4.1%

Everyone else is sub-4% including notables like Rory McIlroy (2.0%) and Collin Morikawa (1.5%).

Above is a screenshot from the PoolGenius tool that I consulted on and I recommend you check out.

The tool is very much in line with what most people are doing. I’ve already used Aberg in this league so he’s not being presented as an option. If I had zero emotion, Jordan Spieth would be the obvious play. He’s my highest graded golfer who ranks higher than Corey Conners in betting odds yet he is 1/3 the ownership. Easy peasy. Except for those two straight missed cuts.

The really interesting one is Matt Fitzpatrick. Vegas loves him compared to Conners, Noren, English, etc. He might have fixed his driving woes by simply removing the grip weights that he forgot about. And is there really anywhere else you’ll stash him for? Harbour Town? Who knows what could happen between now and then.

It’ll be a mix of those two for me this week.

⭐ Before You Go …

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