🌉 Three Rivers To Three Putts

📢 Fore, Please:

I’m ashamed to admit that I have some FOMO this week. I’m not going to the U.S. Open. I get it, boohoo, I live the dream. But damn, seeing everyone converge on Oakmont has me itching to be there. It’s not a CBS event so there wasn’t a desire to get me credentialed for the week.

There’s something awesome about being on the grounds and feeling a Major Championship. I’m going to make the most of it and fire up 5-10 different monitors to track everything 😂.

On a completely different note, if anyone wants to credential me for The Open, I’ll pay my own way!

Rick

I’ve never played in a United States Open and the odds are against me ever teeing it up in one. However, I will be playing with someone who’s appeared in the U.S. Open 13 times — and you can join us!

This is your last call to win the final spot in the foursome with John Daly, myself and another winner.

⛳ Play one round of golf with John Daly and myself.
✈️ $1,000 cash towards travel
🎟️ Each contest entry = one chance to win
⏰ All PGA contests thru U.S. Open

This Week’s Contest
🤑 $50/Entry
🪙 $150,000 guaranteed purse, $40,000 to first.
🎱 Pick eight golfers, best seven scores count!

🔗 Play Now

🏅 Last Week’s Optimal Lineup

Ryan Fox: $7,700 | 134.0 PTS
Sam Burns: $9,300 | 120.5 PTS
Kevin Yu: $7,800 | 116.0 PTS
Cameron Young: $7,500 | 109.0 PTS
Matt McCarty: $7,200 | 106.0 PTS
Andrew Putnam: $7,000 | 105.5 PTS
TOTAL: $46,500 | 691.0 PTS 

🤬 Ruh Roh Rory

The Canadian Open wasn’t a very good week for Rory McIlroy — I’m not breaking any news with that. His second round was not only the second worst round of his career, but it was the third worst driving round of his career, the worst ball-striking round of his career, and the second worst tee-to-green round of his career. Ruh roh!

I trust Rory to figure out the driver sooner rather than later. He’s the best or second-best driver on the planet and I’m sure he’s tested two dozen head/shaft combos since missing the cut in Toronto. But I’m still a little worried.

Rory has lost strokes on approach in three straight events, something he has avoided doing in over two years.

His around-the-green play has been troublesome, losing strokes in seven of his last ten rounds played.

The good news? A U.S. Open at Oakmont should be one of the better places for McIlroy to continue to separate from his peers. He’s currently sporting a six year streak of finishing inside the Top 10 at the U.S. Open. There is no one in the world who sniffs his level of play at this event — as he’s gained +3.12 strokes per round in those 24 rounds.

🧟 The Rest of the Round-Up

The rest of what you missed last week:

• Emiliano Grillo is back (?). He’s a first ballot “Team No Putt” Hall of Famer but has been lost for the better part of 2025. But looky here — +11.09 ball-striking in Canada with four strokes lost on the putting surfaces. Ahhh, the world is healing. That’s the fourth straight event that he’s gained significantly tee-to-green and has struggled with the putter.

• Matt McCarty (T4) just posted his first Top 10 of the year. Expectations were incredibly high for McCarty who won four times in a ten start stretch, culminating with a fall victory in Utah. He gained strokes in all four categories last week and will make his second U.S. Open appearance (MC in 2022).

• Cameron Young stepped to his ball in the 18th fairway on Sunday with a chance to end his PGA TOUR winless drought. The objective was clear, make birdie and get into the playoff. It’s a par-5 and was the third easiest hole on the day. He would go on to nuke a 3W about 20 yards over the green and make bogey, dropping him to T4.

  • That was Cam’s 14th Top 5 finish without a victory since 2022. He and Collin Morikawa are the only golfers with 14+ Top 5s and zero wins in that span.

🔟 Decade of U.S. Opens

The USGA has gone to ten different venues in the last decade with no repeats. Once this tournament kicks off, that streak will end as Oakmont hosted in 2016.

Despite different courses, you have seen a lot of the same names in contention in the last ten years. Both Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele lead the way with (7) Top 10 finishes for each of them — zero wins!

Obviously these are the best players in the world but there is something to be said about the consistency in set-ups by the USGA. Often featuring thick rough (when available), lightning fast greens, and a goal to have the winning score near even par. That final point doesn’t always happen and Mother Nature plays a large role in that coming to fruition.

When I run this report for The Open in a few weeks, you’re not going to see this many golfers with elite history — there’s just too much randomness in that event. The history of this event, plus the nature of the golf course makes me think this could be the (gasps!) easiest Major Championship to predict* in quite some time.

*I’m sure this won’t backfire.

😵 The Carnage Will Be Real (& Spectacular)

Last week, I really started diving into Oakmont CC. That includes the data from 2016, satellite imagery, flyovers, player comments, Bryson DeChambeau’s YouTube channel, etc.

After my first hour of research I nearly threw up my hands — what are these guys supposed to do?! There are just so many ways this course is going to beat these guys up, right? How does anyone break par?

The fairways are comically narrow, usually 25 yards wide with trouble on both sides. There are these massive ditches that run throughout the property (and sometimes through the fairways), with enough bunkers to make Greg Norman blush.

On top of that, the rough is going to be hearty — about 5-6” and thick depending on how diabolical the USGA is feeling. The most common result of missing the green will be pitching it back out into the fairway.

The greens are massive — 8,500 square feet — but so much smaller in reality. The slopes and spines create areas that will collect balls or repel them back down the fairway. Accessing some of the pin locations will require golfers to play short of the green and try to bounce it up — bringing more uncontrollable variables into play.

The greens are well protected with bunked and thick rough and will run over 14’ 5” on the stimp! This is a classic “hang onto your butts” scenario.

🍵 Par Is A Security Blanket

In 2016, Dustin Johnson did a fantastic job of avoiding the big number. He also did a fantastic job of avoiding the medium number!

Johnson made just five bogeys for the week, half the amount (10) of his next closest peers — Jim Furyk & Kevin Streelman. DJ also made just one double and no “others” for the week.

Not making bogeys frees up golfers to not have to make birdies. Johnson only made 11 birdies in 2016, which was bested by 28 different golfers.

I wanted to create some type of ranking system to quickly identify who plays the best when conditions are the worst. I opted to create a ranking like “Total Driving” by using the golfer’s position in certain metrics and lumping them all together into one final rank.

The stats that I opted for:

Bogey Avoidance (when available)
SG: Hard Courses
SG: Major Championships

The top five or six names are exactly who you would expect them to be. There’s always been a narrative that “five or six guys can win this event” and I generally agree. It would take something very very special for Aaron Rai to win this event (sorry, Aaron!).

But I do think this ranking system is instructive for golfers 7-150.

Patrick Reed is not a dog. He is THEE dog. Every time we go to a Major, it’s a bad set-up for him. And every time we go to a Major, he’s in the mix in some form or fashion — always outperforming his expectations.

Russell Henley has missed both Major cuts this year which stopped a streak of improving finishes (T38 > T23 > T7 > 5th). He also has (5) Top 27 finishes in his last six U.S. Opens at a wide variety of venues — Pinehurst, LACC, The Country Club, Torrey Pines, Shinnecock, and Erin Hills — phew!

👣 Deja Vu All Over Again

As I was going through the research, I couldn’t help but have flashbacks to Winged Foot in 2020. The driving test seems nearly identical — fairways too narrow for the accurate hitters meaning that everyone will be hitting out of the rough. The only difference is that Oakmont boasts more bunkers to capture those errant drives — TBD if that’ll be better than playing out of the rough or not.

One of the big correlators to success at Winged Foot was club head speed. Bryson DeChambeau was the only golfer under par and he won by six shots. He beat Matt Wolff who finished at even par, two shots better than anyone else.

There are 15 golfers in this field who finished inside the Top 25 at Winged Foot. Nine of those golfers are swinging it faster now than they were in 2020. DeChambeau was the fastest guy in the field in 2020 and he’s increased his club speed by another 5.32 MPH — the second biggest change in the last five years.

The biggest increase in Club Speed from 2020 to 2025 is Stephan Jaeger who was clocking in at 108.30 MPH five years ago. Now he’s swinging it 118.21 MPH which is on par with what Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy were swinging at in 2020. Obviously those guys are faster now too, but Jaeger has closed the gap significantly.

🥵 Big Boy’s Running Hot

The big LIV golfers are getting more of the run in OAD this week, as expected. DeChambeau has already been used in ~46% of leagues and about half the users who still have him available will deploy him this week. Rahm is available to 68% of users and about half of them will roll him out at Oakmont. I have no problem using either one of them this week.

This is the last hurrah for Scottie in OADs. This is league dependent, but I have him available to ~13% of users and they seem to all be playing him this week. If you’ve gotten this far without using Scottie, you are in the minority. He will be the favorite to win the Travelers, The Open, and any of the playoff events that he tees it up at.

If you’re looking to make a move, Ludvig Aberg is the premier option in my opinion. He’s been inconsistent this year but has put together five really strong rounds in a row. His DNA is suited for Major Championship golf and Oakmont should exasperate that. Additionally, his future value is a question mark considering he probably won’t play another non-Scottie event the rest of the way.