🍁 Poutine For Everyone

📢 Fore, Please…

I was happily surprised when I saw the field for this week’s Canadian Open. Sure, no Rory McIlroy or Scottie Scheffler but it’s pretty meaty at the top.

With a three-pack of favorites in Tommy Fleetwood, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Sam Burns, we also have Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland, and Brooks Koepka. Those names alone get the juices flowing but they aren’t alone. This is setting up to be a lowkey great week. Let’s have a good one!

Rick

🏆 Last Weeks Optimal Lineup

$6,600: JT Poston (115.5)
$6,900 Ryan Gerard (110.0)
$7,300: Wyndham Clark (102.0)
$6,900: Kristoffer Reitan (96.5)
$9,100: Tommy Fleetwood (93.0)
$8,800: Sam Burns (90.5)
$45,600: 607.5 Pts

📫 The Postman From The Heavens

Sometimes the wins just come out of nowhere. I’m thrilled for JT Poston to capture victory but as a data guy, there was nothing pointing at this outcome.

Prior to the win, his best finish in 2026 was a T21 at the Valero Texas Open. His last top-5 finish came over a year ago at the 2025 PGA Championship.

Even after the win, Poston is gaining +0.23 strokes per round in 2026. This is the 7th best year of his ten year career.

If you didn’t see the Poston win coming, you are not alone. In our OAD, out of 5,556 users, there were ZERO Poston selections. I don’t think I’ve ever seen that many people go without having the winner selected at all.

He continues the trend of longshot winners, closing at 145-1. At this point in the season the average winner’s odds at +7000.

Congrats to JT — on to Canada.

🚫 Refusing To Fade

There are two players who have changed their entire lives in 2026, but instead of relaxing they are forging on. Of course, I’m talking about Alex Fitzpatrick and Kristoffer Reitan.

Alex Fitzpatrick has five PGA TOUR starts this year. His win at the Zurich Classic has been followed up by three more top-10 finishes in Signature Events. His worst finish was T75 at the PGA Championship — dreadful!

He doesn’t have enough rounds to qualify, but if he did, he’d be top-20 in SG: Off-the-Tee and first in SG: Approach. He’s very clearly one of the most talented players on TOUR. THIS DOESN’T EVEN ACKNOWLEDGE the fact that he has another win and another four top-20s on the DPWT this year!!!!

Since January 1, 2026 — Fitzpatrick has gained +2.33 strokes per round. It’s the second best global mark behind only Scottie Scheffler.

Okay, let me catch my breath. Now for Kristoffer Reitan.

His win at the Truist Championship capped a run of four lead-in events with three top-15s. His best finish was two weeks before the win, a runner-up at the Zurich Classic with Kris Ventura.

He’s lost strokes off-the-tee just once in his last 13 events and he’s compiled two “complete gains”* in his last three starts. In his last six measured starts he’s gained +34.7 strokes from tee-to-green which doesn’t even include his runner-up at the Zurich!!

Consider me a bull on these two until otherwise noted.

*gaining strokes in all four categories in a given week.

🔥 Catch Him While He’s Hot

It shouldn’t be a surprise that Wyndham Clark is running hot right now — he’s one of the streakiest players on TOUR. It is springing, however, the magnitude of his putting increases.

For much of the year, Wyndham was dreadful with the flatstick. Every week (or round) seemed like he had a new set-up — with little improvement. But he’s figured it out now.

Over his last four starts, he’s gained more than 19 strokes putting. The +12.57 that he gained during his win at TPC Craig Ranch is the most by any player this year. It’s the second most by any player since 2022.

Now he has back-to-back top-10s for the first time since 2024 and enters this week with the fourth shortest odds to win (+2350).

👉 Long Par 4s

The most fascinating feature of TPC Toronto is how long some of the par-4s are here. There are six different par-4s that are over 480 yards long with 16 and 17 combining to play 1,043 yards.

Keith Mitchell is prepared to thrive this week as he is betting on long par-4s than anyone else in this field. He’s played 621 par-4s over 480 yards since 2022 and he’s gained an average of +0.12 strokes on each one.

Michael Brennan and Sudarshan Yellamaraju have smaller sample sizes, fewer than 100 holes played, but both are off to great starts on these types of holes.

🐋 Big Run of National Opens

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