🌵 This Prickles My Fancy

📢 Fore, Please:

I owe you guys a big golf clap. I don’t know how we did it, but the RickRunGood OAD World Championships filled — closing $180,000 of overlay in roughly 24 hours. Amazing! You never let me down and I hope you feel the same about me. I’m already greasing the wheels on trying to get us a $1,000,000 guaranteed event in 2026.

If you want to get into the Phoenix Open Listener League — that contest is now up and running with a $10,000 guaranteed purse.

Best of luck this week
Rick

🏅 Last Week’s Optimal Lineup

Rory McIlroy: $10,700 | 144.5 PTS
Shane Lowry: $8,000 | 128.5 PTS
Cam Davis: $7,000 | 121.5 PTS
Justin Rose: $6,300 | 119.5 PTS
Lucas Glover: $6,100 | 113.0 PTS
Russell Henley: $7,900 | 112.0 PTS
TOTAL: $46,000 | 739.0 PTS 

⚔️ Wielding His Weapon Wisely

What is there to say about Rory McIlroy that hasn’t already been said? Now with 27 PGA TOUR wins and adding the iconic Pebble Beach to his resume.

I didn’t think McIlroy was going to be able to dismantle Pebble Beach with his driver. And I was right! But I was so so wrong.

The lines that he took on no. 14 alone were — astonishing. I suppose there’s really no trouble when you can just hit it over everything and carry it ~330 yards.

On hole 14 alone, Rory gained 1.20 strokes off-the-tee for the week (three rounds). Those three swings alone were more valuable than every drive hit by Shane Lowry, Sungjae Im, and countless others over the week. Rory’s three whacks at 14 would, by themselves, would have ranked him 24th in SG: Off-the-Tee for the week. What a superpower!

🤔 Recent Form vs. Course History

What side of this argument do you fall on? Would you rather a golfer who is playing well right now but has struggled at this course in the past. Or a golfer who is struggling now but has played well at this course in the past.

Luckily, this isn’t really a hypothetical because I think there are two perfect examples in the field this week. So would you rather:

Golfer A: (4) Starts in 2025, three of them are Top 15s, has gained 1.97 strokes per round — the best in this field (min 5 rounds). Has played here 3x — MC, MC, 66th.

Golfer B: (4) Starts in 2025, T37 best finish, has lost strokes to the field in three of four. Record at TPC Scottsdale is one of the best in the field of any golfer with 12 rounds — two Top 5s.

Both of these golfers have the same (or very similar) odds to win. Which one do you want?
(Golfer revealed at the bottom of this email).

👍 Good Enough Is Good Enough

The driving test at TPC Scottsdale asks you to be “accurate enough”. Hitting the fairway is obviously good, finding the rough is not the end of the world, but hitting into the desert (or water) is a disaster. And the difference between a great drive and re-teeing isn’t all that big!

For weeks like this, the objective will be keeping the ball in play and giving yourself a chance to hit the green. That description is basically identical to the “Good Drive %” stat that is measured by the PGA TOUR.

A “Good Drive” is one that either hits the fairway OR allows you to hit the green/fringe in regulation. You didn’t put yourself in such a bad spot that you weren’t able to have a clean look at the green.

Above are the ten best “Good Drive” players in this field, dating back the last 100 rounds. This is courtesy of my website, RickRunGood.com and the Custom Model.

🧢 Hats Off (& On) To This League

There is a massive One & Done League starting this week that, as far as I know, is open to the public for the first time. It has a $2,500 buy-in and some really electric rules. I played in it last year as an invite-only and it got $650,000+ in entries. Now, anyone can join.

• $2,500 entry, already $312,000 in the purse.

• Season long payouts & (6) segment payouts

• Longest Cut Streak Payout: $7,000

• Most Top 10s (outside Top 20 finish overall): $7,000

• Most Wins (outside Top 20 finish overall): $7,000

• Dead Last (must make all picks): $3,500

There are multiples for big events and a $50,000 deduction if your golfer misses the cut. It’s an absolute blast.

🔗 Sign Up: https://bit.ly/3CHupiT

But wait, there’s more!

If you sign up and use my code “RICKRG”, Splash will send you one of their (very rare) TravisMathew hats. I don’t even have this one!

I love a good collaboration between two of my partners!

🫕 Making The Most

Statistically speaking, TPC Scottsdale offers many fewer birdie opportunities from 26’ and closer than the PGA TOUR average.

From 15’ and closer, TPC Scottsdale is well below the TOUR average in how many birdie opportunities it surrenders. The greens will be 2x as large as last week’s host, Pebble Beach, but getting close to the pin here can be a challenge.

So you’ll either need to make a lot of putts over 15’ to win this week OR hit a bunch more approaches inside 15’ than your peers OR both.

Here’s a model for players who will hit it closer more often (Opportunities Gained) along with the ability to sink more long putts than their peers.

You’ll notice that Maverick McNealy is rather capable in both departments while Scottie Scheffler is buoyed by his approach play (though not bad on long putts!).

⛹️‍♀️ Bounceback & Done

I would certainly call last week’s OAD selection a success. I had lots of Cantlay and Justin Thomas, which were — not great. But hitting Lowry with one of my selections in the RRG World Championships was a nice bonus. Still quite happy with how the season has started out.

If you haven’t seen this before, the OAD tool from Pool Genius makes custom recommendations for you depending on your league size, entries, prize distribution, etc. It’s a very well thought out tool that I recommend everyone sign up for — it’s worth way more than they are charging.

💰 Plus we get a discount, so sign up here: bit.ly/3PjawS7

The early ownership returns do not show a standalone popular option. Sam Burns at ~15% is leading the way, but Justin Thomas, Tom Kim, and Sahith Theegala are all expected to command ~10-15% roster rates.

The $1.6m top prize makes this a “second tier” event. That means we are looking for “second tier” golfers. I’ll admit, Tom Kim was top of mind for me before I even ran these models. His approach play has been stellar and he’s been contending a lot over the last few months. He’s more volatile than I’d like and I worry about the Scottsdale fans giving him the business over his slow play, but it’s not enough to sway me away from TK.

Sepp Straka (Golfer A): (4) Starts in 2025, three of them are Top 15s, has gained 1.97 strokes per round — the best in this field (min 5 rounds). Has played here 3x — MC, MC, 66th.

Sahith Theegala (Golfer B): (4) Starts in 2025, T37 best finish, has lost strokes to the field in three of four. Record at TPC Scottsdale is one of the best in the field of any golfer with 12 rounds — two Top 5s.