⛵Summering In The Hamptons

📢 Fore, Please…

Shinnecock is … incredible. It creates elite champions and makes elite champions putt their ball while it’s still moving.

There’s a chance for the Career Grand Slam this week. In fact, a good chance. Probably an 18% chance if you believe the Vegas odds.

Even par might win. EVEN PAR MIGHT WIN!

How can you not be romantic about golf?

Rick

🏆 Last Weeks Optimal Lineup

$7,800: Bud Cauley (135.5)
$6,500 Jimmy Stanger (112.5)
$10,500: Matt Fitzpatrick (111.5)
$6,300: Brice Garnett (107.0)
$7,000: Jesper Svensson (105.0)
$9,200: Viktor Hovland (104.5)
$47,300: 676.0 Pts

🍺 This Bud’s For You

It’s over! Bud Cauley is a winner on the PGA TOUR for the first time in his career. He was one of a few dozen players who have at least 200 career PGA TOUR starts without a victory since 2005.

He was the most deserving of the non-winners as he had gained +0.44 strokes per round in his career entering last week. That was the most of any of his winless peers who were much closer to average players in their eras.

He also had a 12.5% Top-10 rate during his winless stretch, which was second to only Robert Allenby. Cheers, Bud!

📫 Shipping My Sticks

Something weird happened this week but let me back up for a second. I’ve taken my golf clubs to Florida seven different times this year plus a handful of other trips. I hate everything that goes into traveling with golf clubs but I love having my set with me on the road. But I’ve had enough.

I got fed up with checking my golf clubs on flights and decided to use ShipSticks so my clubs will be in Florida when I get there.

I tweeted out “does anyone have a promo code for ShipSticks?”. I figure, they run ads, there is probably some discount code somewhere. Then — ShipSticks themselves DM’d me and said they’d pay for my bag if I posted a review (good or bad) about my experience.

Joke’s on them, I would have done it for free.

Seriously, I’ve used ShipSticks two or three times now and it’s always been great. If you don’t need access to your clubs immediately, it’s a no-brainer.

Option 1: Check your bags with the airline. Arrive early to wait in the check/dropoff line. Pay $50 each way. Wait for who knows how long at baggage claim. Lug clubs to rental car.

Option 2: Leave golf clubs on doorstep. Pay $100 each way. Grab golf clubs at hotel.

If your time, energy, trouble is worth like $20/hour then you should probably just be using ShipSticks. They gave me a 20% off code for you which is “RICKG20”.

Pro Tip: flip all your clubs so the heads are at the bottom of the bag. It stops the club chatter and redistributes the weight to the bottom. Now the weight is where the wheels of your travel bag are instead of in your wrist/forearms. Feels 20x lighter.

👑 Crowned Greens

One of the most notable features, and there are many, of Shinnecock Hills is the crowned green complexes. Everything funnels off the edges which makes the greens effectively much smaller than their square footage on the course sheet.

The penalty for the ball funneling off-the-green can fluctuate. Sometimes the ball will roll into a collection area on the short-side of the green. Other times, it might funnel 30 yards back down the green. Neither are great results but it makes the margins of missing/hitting greens very small.

Let’s start with around-the-green play. This week will ask for a variety of shots from multiple locations (thick rough, short grass, bunkers, fescue, etc). I think it’s safe to look at ARG play as a whole but I also want to see who improves at majors.

The way to read the chart above is — “Rickie Fowler has the biggest SG:ARG difference between his 2026 year and his Major Championship career”. Rickie has the hands of an angel at majors but has struggled in 2026. Using purely the difference might not be the best because it would reward golfers who have actually struggled in 2026.

This updated chart is probably better. This is every golfer who has been a positive ARG player in 2026 AND gets back in their Major Championship career. Considering the fact that the top three are all major champions, yeah this checks out.

The new chart reads — “Jason Day has gained +0.507 strokes around-the-green in 2026 and still has a higher average in majors”

Now, we could simply just hit the green and not have to worry about getting up and down at all. That would be nice, wouldn’t it? But that would require elite distance control. I’ve always wondered about a “distance control” stat, so here’s my crack at it.

Distance To Pin +- Distance of Approach Shot
Must be measured with radar.
Must be categorized as approach shot.
Must be inside 250 yards (to weed out second shots into par-5s)

This doesn’t account for any left/right dispersion but neither does your playing partner when he yells “at least it’s pin high!” as you’re 30 yards into the woods. “right club!”

Si Woo Kim is the best Distance Control player on TOUR this year. His average long/shot miss is 26’ or ~9 yards. Followed by Sudarshan Yellamaraju and Matt Fitzpatrick.

While this is only half of the equation, it’s interesting to not see Scottie Scheffler’s name (he ranks 36th).

💨 Coastal Winds

“Mother Nature will have her say in this Championship!” is a silly phrase that often gets uttered this time of year. I’m guilty, I’ve said it. But it’s true!

Precipitation wise, the current forecast is showing rain on Thursday and Friday. Thursday looks worse than Friday and there’s still a lot of time between now and then. The wind on Thursday looks tough — 18 MPH with gusts higher than that.

Shinnecock Hills is already exposed with wind coming off the bay and the fact that there are like … zero … trees out here*. Even a 10 MPH wind is going to be impactful.

So let’s just do it. Let’s look at the best approach players in “strong wind” conditions since 2023.

Hey look, it’s some of the best approach players in the world. It makes sense that the guys who flush it in normal conditions also flush it in the wind! Maybe some of the standouts include Viktor Hovland getting a boost, along with Shane Lowry, Sepp Straka, and Akshay Bhatia.

*wear your sunscreen peeps.

🦗 Gradually Getting Tougher

There is a bit of wiggle room off-the-tee at Shinnecock Hills, which is nice because a big miss is going to be a brutal punishment.

Please don’t read this as “Shinnecock is easy off-the-tee” or “bombs away!”. There’s actually a lot of strategy with the way the fairways are angled and the conditions will dictate the runout and club selection for many players.

I mean, from a statistical standpoint, there is a little bit of wiggle room off-the-tee. The fairways are wide enough (again, effectively smaller in many places), with a bit of rough before giving way to the absolutely brutal fescue, high grass disaster that lurks for big misses.

I stole the photo above from the guys at The Fried Egg (sorry boys). They have a very sick course breakdown that I would recommend.

I think the photo illustrates what some of the numbers also demonstrate. There’s plenty of fairway, then a few angled yards of symmetric rough, then some random sandy area, then all out chaos.

Kudos to the USGA for shaving down the area leading into the fairway bunkers, those will be magnets. The strip of rough and long grass around the fairway side of the bunker will be annoying (woohoo!).

Obviously long and straight plays here and everywhere. Slightly crooked won’t be a problem. Big misses will be the worst.

There are only eight players in the field who are inaccurate but not by much. They rank in the bottom half of driving accuracy but the top half of distance from edge of fairway.

omg, is it a Spieth week?

 🧑‍🍳 Yes, Scheff!

This will be the 15th consecutive Major Championship in which Scottie Scheffler has single digits odds to win. Of the previous 14, he has three wins and countless trips into contention.

This is the final boss standing between Scheffler and the Career Grand Slam. It would also raise Scheffler to his fifth major championship which has only been accomplished by 21 men in the history of the game.

Scottie would be one of the fastest to accomplish the “race to 5” with this being his 28th major start.

Tiger did it in 22, Jack did it in 25.

If Scheffler wins this week, or at any point in the next year, he would get to five faster than Watson did, who ended with eight for his career.

Rory is already at six and Brooks has five. Scottie and Spieth are one away from the Slam. It feels like every major championship has a chance to be a historic one which is pretty incredible in a post-Tiger era.

🐋 Splashing Around

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