🐍 Show The Pythons

📢 Fore, Please…

We are in full sprint mode now. Just Seabiscuit coming around down the homestretch. An unreal run of API and PLAYERS, right into March Madness, right into Masters, and every month there is something(s) big.

I’ve got my running shoes on, let’s go.
Rick

🏆 Last Week’s Optimal Lineup

Cameron Young ($8,100): 109.5 pts
Matt Fitzpatrick ($8,900): 107.5
Ludvig Aberg ($8,700): 98.5
Xander Schauffele ($9,600): 96.5
Jacob Bridgeman ($7,900): 95.5
Sudarshan Yellamaraju ($6,000): 94.5
Total: $49,200: 602.0 pts

🗿 The Stones On This Guy

Cameron Young stood on the teebox of the 72nd hole, tied for the lead, with one of the most intimidating shots in golf — where he dunked it in the water the previous day — and hit the longest drive ever recorded there. Stones!

His driver is the main weapon, but it’s not the only weapon. He’s third on TOUR in strokes gained off-the-tee this year — behind only Marco Penge and Gary Woodland. Those two are elite drivers but they are losing strokes to the field significantly in other areas, to the point where they are actually losing players.

Young adds a variety of other elements like his approach player, where he’s gaining 0.50 strokes per round. He joins a small group of players who have gained at least +0.50 strokes off-the-tee AND +0.50 strokes per round on approach this year. That group is just five players — Morikawa, Si Woo, Fitzpatrick, Hisatsune, and Young.

But we aren’t done yet — he’s gaining another +0.31 strokes putting this year which makes him the only player to gain at least one strokes ball-striking and +0.25 strokes with the putter.

It’s a complete game but it’s an elite complete game.

🤢 Ludvig Å-Boy

I got a text from a friend that went something like this…

Of all PGA TOUR players in the Top 50 OWGR, only Andrew Novak has more rounds of 75 or higher in 2025 and 2026 than Ludvig Aberg. Is there SD evidence to support or refute that Ludvig’s bad is bad.

Let’s see. Ludvig gains 5+ strokes in a round at an amazing clip, 8% of the time. That’s him hitting his ceiling at the fourth highest rate on TOUR. The only golfers ahead of him — Scheffler, Matsuayama, and Rose.

It’s similar if we look at rounds of 4+ SG, Ludvig does that 17.6% of the time, which is also the fourth highest rate. So it’s safe to say that Ludvig has a ceiling round more frequently than almost everyone on TOUR.

He loses 4+ strokes 4.3% of the time and he loses 5+ strokes 2.7% of the time. Those are very much in line with Matsuyama, Cameron Young, and other golfers that you would lump Ludvig in with.

The bigger difference is how often Ludvig loses 1+ strokes to the field, which he does 25% of the time. That number is much more frequent than his high performing peers. That number is closer to Davis Thompson, JT Poston and Aaron Rai.

I don’t think it’s fair to say that Ludvig’s “bad is very bad” but he’s “bad more often than he should be”.

🏀 I Don’t Know What I’m Doing

My hibernation as College Basketball Analyst is over and I’m ready to fake it for the next few days. If you aren’t aware, seven years ago I started making this “Optimal March Madness” video on YouTube. I made a bracket with data considering the fact that I know absolutely nothing about college basketball. That video is always my top performing YouTube video of the year (LOL!).

I still know nothing about basketball but I am better at math and coding, so instead of a spreadsheet, there’s an interactive web app where you can see all the data and probability paths.

Video: https://youtu.be/RO9AwenO-0k
App: https://march-madness-webapp.vercel.app/
Tools: https://poolgenius.teamrankings.com/rick/
Contests: https://splashsports.com/rick

My general thoughts for a big pool:

• You can’t pick Duke to win it all, you just can’t!

• The South looks wide open, big edge for picking someone besides Florida and Houston to come out of there.

• Don’t fear advancing a play-in team an extra round.

• The bracket is actually pretty fair this year?!

🍀 The Big Four

This is such an interesting field. I think it’s pretty top heavy but anyone in the top ~20 could win. After that, I think it gets weak rather quickly. It’s a variety of players who haven’t always competed against one another and not all of them necessarily played last week. After a handful of signature events recently, this feels like a fun new problem to solve.

My attention turns to what I am calling “the big four”, which are the guys who are head and shoulders above everyone else in the tee-to-green department. They are:

Brooks Koepka: +1.51
Austin Smotherman: +1.50
Matt Fitzpatrick: +1.33
Ryo Hisatsune: +1.33

There is a massive gap between them and the rest of the field, with no other player gaining at least 1.0 strokes from tee-to-green per round. Now, as you might imagine, they are all losing strokes putting for the year (otherwise they would have eight wins by now) but there are a few reasons to be optimistic about all of them.

Brooks: has improved his putting and is +0.19 strokes per round over his last eight.
Smotherman: has played Innisbrook twice and gained strokes putting each time.
Fitz: was brutal to start the year but has gained in each of his last two
Ryo: has the ability to pop with the putter, like he did for three straight earlier this year.

🌉 No Bridge Too Man

I have to admit, I am loving Jacob Bridgeman.

He’s always been a fantastic putter but he’s taken that to a new level in 2026. He’s gaining +1.41 strokes per round which is the most of anything with at least three starts. But now, he’s figuring out the ball-striking. Over his first four years as a professional, he was a losing ball-striker every year. Now, he’s gaining +0.66 strokes per round between those two categories.

He does gain 73% of his strokes through the putter which offers up some level of concern but it’s not like those gains have come out of nowhere. He’s always been a great putter and he passes the eye test in a big way.

🐋 Splash Around With Me

I’m not sure what has gotten into Splash but they have launched a $100,000 guaranteed OAD that starts this week (for all you Morikawa backers). They also have millions of dollars in guaranteed NCAA Survivor Contests AND — of course — the most important contest of all…

Our Valspar Tiers contest ($25,000)!
Pick six golfers, best five scores count.

Join both: https://bit.ly/SplashRRG

🥸 Looking For An Edge?

You guys know that I have a nice relationship with the team over at PoolGenius and we are entering the time of year where they really shine.

• One and Done Contests

• Majors Pools

• March Madness

They have tools to help you get custom recommendations for your pool size, payouts, goals, etc and give you the optimal ways to play. I helped consult on their OAD tool a few years back. Since I have the relationship, they give us the best possible discount which is up to 60% off.

Link for discounts: https://bit.ly/PGRG

• Use my fantasy and betting tools here!

• Let me know which players and stats you want to hear more about. Reply to this email with suggestions.

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