💳 Putting For Dough

📢 Fore, Please…

Y’all are GOATS. We filled the biggest OAD in the history of the internet AND the weekly tiers contest. I promise not to ask you for anything for a while.

Let’s get to the numbies.

Enjoy,
Rick

🏆 Last Week’s Optimal Lineup

Chris Gotterup ($8,500): 120.0 pts
Patrick Rodgers ($6,900): 109.0
Ryan Gerard ($7,300): 105.0
Robert MacIntyre ($9,600): 103.5
Jacob Bridgeman ($7,000): 103.5
Davis Riley ($6,400): 99.0
Total: $45,700: 640 pts

👶 Problem Child

Ryan Gerard is turning into a problem. Imagine the confidence this guy has with a completely set schedule for 2026 — in all the Signature Events and already invited to the Masters. There’s nothing left to do but play great golf and that’s exactly what he’s doing.

He’s got back-to-back runner-up finishes in his last two starts and he put together this beauty of a stat line in Honolulu:

OTT: +1.578
APP: +6.227
ARG: +1.835
PUTT: +1.230

That’s starting to become the norm and he’s gained strokes from tee-to-green in five straight measured events. This looks eerily similar to (dare I say it), the lead-up to his Barracuda Championship win this past summer.

🏹 Keep The Weapon, The Weapon

Chris Gotterup is fun to watch, eh? He’s a traj-master with insane ball speed and when he gets the putter going, it looks like he’s playing a video game. But there’s something really interesting about that win last week.

Gotterup lost 0.124 strokes on approach last week. He’s the first TOUR winner to do that since Scottie Scheffler won the 2022 Phoenix Open.

His weapon, the driver, was truly spectacular. He led the field in SGOTT but Waialae CC really allowed him to make a huge gap between him and the rest of the field. He was able to cut doglegs and have some really short shots into greens.

Above is one of many examples from last week — it was the 8th hole on Sunday. The red circle is Gotterup’s drive which went 357 yards. Not only was it the longest of the day, but it was 17 full yards longer than anyone else.

The green circle is Ryan Gerard, who I just called a problem child, sitting a casual 51 yards behind Gotterup. That’s the difference between hitting an approach from 91 yards or 151 yards. And while Gotterup wasn’t particularly sharp with his wedges, he didn’t really have to be.

The average proximity from Gotterup’s position is ~ 17’ while Gerard’s position is ~26’. So even a below average wedge shot from Gotterup can finish closer to the hole than an above average shot from Gerard. This is how Gotterup is able to mask some approach struggles because he’s playing a different game than the rest of the field.

 📱 Keep Scrolling Down The Board

If you thought last week was chaotic, you ain’t seen nothin’ yet! The American Express is probably the most volatile and hardest to predict event on the schedule. That passes both the eye test and the data test:

The average winner’s odds are 150-1 since 2019 and that includes Jon Rahm winning at like +750. And I get it!

All the same early season weirdness that we had last week plus a full field (156) with amateurs, across three courses, all of which are birdie-fests. Every single player in the field can go low on these venues.

3️⃣ The Three Little Courses

This is a rare, three-course rotation that will also feature a 54-hole cut. Each golfer in the field will play one round at each of the Stadium Course, La Quinta CC, and the Nicklaus Tournament course before the cut. The remaining players will all return to the Stadium Course for the final round.

The Stadium Course has historically been the most difficult venue (though not as difficult as it was a decade ago) with LQ and NT providing plenty of scoring opportunities.

🐣 In Case You Missed It …

I’ve started expanding my relationship with the PGA TOUR via the GolfBet brand which includes writing an article on PGATOUR.com every week. The topics are intentionally unplanned. Whatever the numbers or trends say about the week is what I write about.

This week, that was about longshots. I made the case for five different longshots and why this is probably the only week of the year that I won’t be investing in Scottie Scheffler.

“There is no doubt he is the best player in the world, and it’s not close, but this event breeds volatility. It features a massive field, multiple courses and an early-season schedule spot that tends to introduce more randomness. Those factors downgrade the very top of the board.”

You can read the full article: https://bit.ly/4qA1mSe

🎬 A Tier of Own Own

Our weekly Tiers contest is back again. This one has a $25/entry with $25,000 guaranteed — top 100 finishers get paid.

Join now: https://bit.ly/3IbnqS3

• Use my fantasy and betting tools here!

• Let me know which players and stats you want to hear more about. Reply to this email with suggestions.

• Play big contests & win big money. See my contests now.