🏆 Presidential Seal of Approval

📢 Fore, Please:

By the time you read this email, I’ll already be in Montreal thanks to the power of email scheduling. This will be my first time attending a Presidents Cup and being able to do so on foreign soil is always special.

I truly think attending the Ryder Cup in Europe was a turning point for my career. Not only did I see a team event of that magnitude for the first time, but I saw how golf is treated globally. I hope to have another meaningful experience this week.

I’ve already gotten a bunch of emails and notes from you guys who will be in attendance. Looking forward to meeting up!

Rick

💰 Content

• There will be a Wednesday Live Chat this week, but I’m still working to determine the time. As of right now, it’s in the normal time slot (Wednesday at 3PM ET) — but could change depending on traffic and media center logistics. I will update the Live Chat room if anything changes.

⚖️ More Competitive Than Even

The Presidents Cup has, historically, been a one way street. And that’s putting it kindly. In 14 previous editions, the United States team has 12 victories and one tie meaning that the International team has prevailed just once (1998) since the creation of this event.

However — I think there’s a great case to be made that this year will be rather competitive and could even result in an International victory. Here are the current betting odds at the time of writing:

USA (-270)
International (+260)
Tie (+1400)

🤏 Closer Than You Think

When the final captain’s selections were made, I gave Captain Mike Weir an A- for his team. He made a difficult, but correct, decision to leave Nick Taylor off his team. He went with Mackenzie Hughes where I would have gone with Cameron Davis but Mac’s skill-set in an event like this is incredibly valuable. So I won’t beat up Weir for this decision. To me, everything else was perfect.

The International Team is statistically comparable to the USA team in three of the four main facets of the game. Both teams are nearly identical off-the-tee, around-the-green and putting since the start of 2024.

The only significant gap is on approach play where Team USA boasts four of the top five flushers during that stretch (Scheffler, Schauffele, Finau, Morikawa).

📈 Trending In The Right Direction

Possibly the biggest concern for the Americans lies in their form.

Over the first six months of 2024, Team USA handily out-paced the International squad in terms of Strokes Gained. July was the first time that the Internationals beat the Americans in SG with both teams posting massive averages (1.41 vs. 1.35). In fact, July was the Americans’ best combined month and it was still beaten by the International squad.

August was a down month for both teams and it was rather tight but September has been all yellow. The International Team is doubling team USA in strokes gained right as we enter competition week.

🦹 The Culprits

For months (years?) the common refrain has always been that Team USA has depth. DEPTH! So deep that it doesn’t matter who they pick. So deep that golfers 12-24 could win an international team competition.

Yeah — that’s not true. Stalwarts like Jordan Spieth & Justin Thomas have been stuck in neutral. There’s no longer access to Brooks Koepka, Bryson DeChambeau or anyone else playing on LIV. Cameron Young hasn’t played well enough to warrant a selection and I could go on and on. The depth isn’t there in 2024.

Even those who made the team for Montreal are entering in some of their worst form.

Brian Harman (red above) peaked in March (+2.0) and has been steadily declining ever since. He has (1) Top 10 since THE PLAYERS and has lost strokes putting in four of six — which on paper is one of his biggest weapons.

Keegan Bradley (gray) popped with a win at the BMW Championship but really hasn’t done much on the course for the rest of the year. He’s another problem putter, losing strokes in six straight.

Max Homa (blue) has been the target as the “guy who probably shouldn’t be on this team'“ and it’s really hard to argue with that. I’ve spent plenty of keystrokes and oxygen making the case for … anyone… over Max who has been completely lost since the Wells Fargo Championship. He’s lost strokes off-the-tee in 9/10, he’s lost on approach in 5/6 and his short-game has put him in the negative in 6/9.

🍷 Aging Like Fine Wine

On the flip side, the International Team is rounding into form as the perfect time — led by two Presidents Cup veterans.

Hideki Matsuyama and Adam Scott have played a combined 71 President Cup matches. Scott has played more than anyone in event history and Matusyama isn’t far behind.

To put that into perspective, Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson have combined for 84 Ryder Cup matches in their careers. Assuming Deki/Scott add another 8-10 to their tally for this year, it’s likely that those two surpass 84 by the time they hang it up.

Adam Scott (Black above) has been scorching to finish in the 2024 season. His last five events have produced (4) Top 10 finishes including (2) runner-up finishes. His tee-to-green play has been stellar and he’s gained strokes putting in six straight.

Hideki Matsuyama (gold) earned a bronze medal at The Olympics before winning in Memphis. He withdrew at the BMW Championship but picked up nearly five strokes to the field in the one round that he played. Then he finished T9 at the TOUR Championship.

🌲 The Set-Up For Victory

Royal Montreal and the way it’s set-up is the biggest weapon that the Internationals have in trying to fight for victory this week.

This course will create a lot of different decisions off-the-tee and you simply cannot pull driver and smash it wherever you want. The doglegs, and the angles of those doglegs, create beautiful risk/reward situations where the difference of 0.5 degrees on your target line could result in a 0.50 to 1.00 stroke difference by the time your ball lands. Let’s look at some examples.

Number 4 is a really good example of how Royal Montreal could fluster even the best drivers in the world. It’s a 500 yard par-4 with a dogleg left. The landing zone, between 290 and 330 yards, has fairway bunkers on both sides and it’s only 27 yards wide to find the shortgrass. To remove the trouble, you’ll have to carry it 322 yards but also take on more risk in the process. Dialing back to 270-280 yards removes most of the bunkers and offers the widest portion of the fairway

Number 10 is a shorter par-4 but it has water all the way up the left side. And while the fairway is generously 50+ yards wide, it narrows the farther you go. More critically, there is no safe miss. Missing the fairway right by two yards is a grove of trees that doesn’t look particularly fun. Missing the fairway left by two yards is a water ball and probably a lost hole.

There are countless examples of this, especially on the back nine, but let’s look at my favorite hole.

Here’s number 14, a tiny little 372 yard par-4 that will have you ripping your hair out. This is going to come at a time in the match when most outcomes are on the verge of being decided. A one hole swing this late in the game will drastically change win probabilities. And if you’re behind, this is your chance to steal one.

A 300 yard drive would put you in flip-wedge range with a high likelihood of making birdie. But that decision comes with immense risk as the fairway is only 20 yards wide and flanked by water all the way up the left.

If you’re up big in the match, you might be able to conceivably go 8 iron - 8 iron to stay short of the trouble (45 yard wide fairway) and have a fairly simple approach into the green. However, the shape of the green and trouble left would have some players in their heads with this approach.

I’m also hoping that one day (all days?!) this teebox gets moved up and offers a drivable green. If you need to find me this week, I’ll be posted up here on 14.

🤔 Does The Team Fit The Course?

Common refrain — “short, accurate courses help the Internationals and hurt the Americans”. I’m not convinced that this is true for the make-up of these two teams in 2024.

Team USA has some of the most accurate drivers throughout their squad. Russell Henley, Collin Morikawa, Brian Harman and Scottie Scheffler all make a living playing out of the short-grass. Their shoes rarely need cleaning at the end of the day.

I ran a model based on five different driving metrics (distance, accuracy, fairways gained, good drive percentage and total driving). The graphic above shows the Top 12, sorted by the aggregate rank of those categories.

Of the Top 12 “best drivers”, eight of them come from Team USA. Both teams have guys that are absolutely going to spray it — Theegala, Clark, Homa, Hughes, An, Min Woo.

It’s going to be fascinating to see if this set-up can be a benefit to the International Team or if it’ll actually end up being a detriment.

🤑 Top Point Scorers To Watch

Top American Point Scorers

Xander Schauffele +450: He’s easily one of the two best players in the world and you could argue that no one is better than him in a Team Competition Power Ranking. He’s 10-6-0 in his Presidents/Ryder Cup career. He has a historic partnership with Patrick Cantlay that solidifies his usage. The only “concern” is that he’s never played all five sessions in a team event.

Sam Burns +750: This is a little riskier and his usage might depend on how successful he is out of the gate. It’s likely he pairs with Scottie Scheffler — they were the first group out for Session 1 in Rome. He’s gained 2+ strokes on approach in five straight and can be one of the hottest putters on the planet.

Top International Point Scorers

Adam Scott +700: We’ve already discussed his great play coming in, but even at 44 years old, he seems like he’s on track to play a lot — maybe even all five sessions. There’s an extra day built into the Presidents Cup as compared to the Ryder Cup. So playing all five sessions is not as taxing. He’s been paired with a variety of partners over the years (Davis, Hideki, Louis, Ben An, Hadwin, Vegas, Day, Lahiri, Leishman, etc) so it seems like they’ll find a path to the first teebox for Scott.

Corey Conners +800: The Canadians (Conners, Pendrith) need some revenge. They were 0-8-0 at Quail Hollow and the only players from either team to lay a goose-egg in the points category. I expect Weir to rely heavily on his trio of Canadians and it’s Conners who has been playing some great golf for much of the year. He’s accurate off-the-tee, one of the best approach players in the world and he’s been a neutral putter in his last six starts. Those are all really good signs for revenge.

⚓ Captain Rick, Reporting For Duty

If I somehow found a way to captain both teams, these would be your Day 1 Matches.

Session 1: Four Ball

Team USA

Max Homa & Sahith Theegala
Scottie Scheffler & Sam Burns
Wyndham Clark & Russell Henley
Patrick Cantlay & Xander Schauffele
Collin Morikawa & Tony Finau

Sitting: Brian Harman & Keegan Bradley

Notes: I need to know what I have in Max Homa right away. Fourball is better than foursomes for him and he can steward debutant Theegala. Then I’m going with firepower and my best pairings. I would LOVE to get Keegan out in Match 1 for the vibes but I can’t see who I am replacing him with. If I wanted to burn it all down, I’d put Wyndham and Keegan out first.

International Team

Corey Conners & Mackenzie Hughes
Tom Kim & Si Woo Kim
Jason Day & Min Woo Lee
Sungjae Im & Hideki Matsuyama
Adam Scott & Taylor Pendrith

Sitting: Christiaan Bezuidenhout & Ben An

Notes: This is why we have Hughes here, right? Let’s see how much we can fire up the crowd. Kim/Kim rekindle the pairing that beat Schauffele/Cantlay in 2022. Day brings experience to Min Woo in a really comfortable pairing and then I’m back-loading with scoring potential.