⛈️ A Wet Week at Pebble

This week marks a “new era” of professional golf. This is the first “full” signature event on the PGA TOUR where 80 golfers will compete with no cut. Technically The Sentry was also a signature event but it didn’t have the same size field that Pebble Beach and other signature events will have moving forward.

At the same time, LIV is kicking off their third season with a new cast. Jon Rahm will make his debut on the circuit and, according to Monday reports, he will be joined by Tyrrell Hatton.

It’s hard to be excited about the state of pro golf right now, but I’m willing to commit myself to the process. Run the numbers, learn more and continue to prepare for each week as best as I can. That’s what I get excited about. The process. And I hope you do too.

Rick

PS — There are over 16,200 (!!) nerdy golf people who read this newsletter. You can join them by subscribing below.

🏆 Last Week’s Optimal Lineup

Matthieu Pavon: $7,100 | 113.5 PTS
Stephan Jaeger: $7,800 | 107.0 PTS
Nicolai Hojgaard: $8,400 | 102.5 PTS
Hideki Matsuyama: $8,500 | 98.5 PTS
Nate Lashley: $6,500 | 98.0 PTS
Jake Knapp: $6,400 | 98.0 PTS
TOTAL: $44,700 | 617.5 PTS

🖼️ This Longshot Thing is Out of Control

I’ve been tracking the betting odds for every golf in every PGA TOUR event for the last five years — technically dating back to early 2019.

During that period there have been (3) separate instances of back-to-back winners of 100-1 or longer. There has never been three straight, until last week. And there’s never been four straight until right now.

Prior to 2024, these longshots had won 28/191 events — 14.7% of the time. In 2024, they’ve won all four TOUR events.

I enjoyed the above tweet which indicates how insane this run has been. Remember, if someone has posted multiple winning tickets in 2024, they have outed themselves as a time traveler.

🚀 What’s The Opposite of Bomb & Gouge?

Below you’ll find an image of every par-4 and par-5 at Pebble Beach along with the shot distributions in the landing zone. Click on it. Zoom in. Take a good look. What do you notice?

For me — there are two main takeaways:

1. Most golfers play their second shots from the same locations.

2. Within those locations, there’s not much incentive of coming from a specific side, angle or (sometimes) lie.

The numbers certainly back up these theories. At only 268 yards, Pebble Beach has the shortest average drive on TOUR. You cannot bomb and gouge your way around here. Thanks to well-placed hazards (by both man and nature), everyone is required to hit it to the same spots off-the-tee.

From those locations, it’s not so much a matter of where but who. Those birdies (red dots) are scattered around which is not normal on the PGA TOUR. There is often a larger reward for finding the fairway or hitting it farther than your peers.

Since Pebble Beach is also very short, being 20 yards behind the drive of your playing partner is still leaving you a very short shot (likely wedge) into the tiny greens. Now it becomes a competition of who is the better approach player.

🎯 Aim Small, Miss Small

Now, we are already putting an emphasis on approach play as the field will be asked to hit these tiny and devious greens. There are a few players who have cracked the code — below are the best approach players at Pebble Beach with at least 12 rounds (U.S. Open included):

🍳 Scramble Your Way To The Top!

You’d think with the smallest greens on TOUR, the GIR rate would be microscopic at Pebble Beach — but it’s not.

Last year, the field hit 65.73% of greens which ranked as the 25th hardest out of 58 courses — middle of the road.

There’s an argument to be made that the penalty for missing the greens is greater than TOUR average because of how tricky those greenside locations can be — and I agree with this.

Pebble Beach was the 11th most difficult place to scramble last year, due in part to a variety of reasons including 1) pitching/chipping to small greens 2) tricky greenside lies 3) difficult greens to putt on.

Whatever the reasons are, it is statistically true that better around-the-green players have been more correlated to success at Pebble Beach than nearly every other event.

These are the best short-game players (around-the-green plus putting) at Pebble Beach since 2008 (minimum 12 rounds).

Note: Jordan Spieth has been one of the best approach players at a course that also strongly rewards short-game prowess. Is there any doubt why he’s had some much success here?!

 🙏 Prayers Up For The Grounds Crew

I’m certainly no meteorologist, but this doesn’t look great:

The forecast at the Monterey County Station (closest weather station to Pebble Beach) is currently predicting 3.36” of rain from Wednesday to Sunday with temperatures in the mid-50s. This screams “Preferred Lies” and whispers “Monday Finish”.

Let’s hope the small field can navigate their way through this event in a timely fashion and finish up on Sunday afternoon as expected.

⭐ Tracking Has Never Been Easier

🐳 Another Week, Another Winner

Congrats to ‘wojcik19’ who took down our weekly Splash Sports contest with a lineup that was 46-under par (!!). This week’s contest is even bigger and continues to be guaranteed!

• Pick one golfer from each of six tiers

• $20/entry, 220 spots available

• Guaranteed Payouts to the Top 25

• Join Now: https://bit.ly/3Sa7UXx

👂Help Me, Help You!

In 2024, you’re going to see more content from me than ever — with an emphasis on this email newsletter. If there is a question you’ve always wondered, a problem you’ve been unable to solve, or a deep-dive into any golf topic you want — let me know! Hit reply and tell me how I can help.

😋 Give Me More Content!

• You can read my Pebble Beach statistical profile in my written preview on RickRunGood.com.

• Join me on Wednesday at 3PM ET for Pebble Beach Live Chat — where I’ll answer your questions and cover so much more.