🏈 Tossin' The Pigskin

📢 Fore, Please:

Rarely do I step out of my golf lane, but a few times a year I make an exception. Usually once around March Madness and once around the start of the NFL season. Those are exciting times that offer math problems to solve.

Here is your annual email dedicated to NFL Survivor Data, Tools, Contests and more!

😵 Survive The Survivor

You’re going to hear a lot of advice for NFL Survivor Leagues but most of it isn’t rooted in reality and the data does not back-up those claims. There are really only three things that matter in Survivors:

1) Win Equity
2) Pick Probability
3) Future Value

That’s it!

All the other garbage has already been accounted for in these three pillars so don’t make this more complicated than it needs to be.

Win Equity - the probability a team has of winning their game in a given week.

Pick Probability - how the rest of the league will distribute their picks by team.

Future Value - the amount of win equity a team has in later weeks.

The intersection of these pillars is finding a team that 1) is very likely to win this week, 2) will not be very popular, and 3) has the most value this week but not much moving forward.

I talk about this more in-depth in my recent YouTube Video:

🤓 The Expert Speaks

I contacted Jason Lisk who is an analyst over at PoolGenius. He’s probably seen more Survivor Leagues than anyone and actually has the data to prove the optimal paths forward. Here are some snippets of that conversation:

Q: What are the biggest mistakes made in Survivor Leagues?

Jason: Probably the biggest mistake people make in survivor pools is not thinking about how their opponents will play things. Pools are a zero-sum game where entries increase in value when others do worse than them and, in the case of survivor pools, get eliminated with a loss.

So, thinking about which teams are going to be too popular relative to their odds and their future value is a key strategic component to gaining an edge. It's hard to win survivor pools, but you want to reap big rewards when you are right and others are wrong. That happens when you can intelligently deviate from conventional wisdom and popular teams.

Q: Should I use the best teams early in the season to "ensure advancement" or save them for later weeks?

The ultimate goal is to win the pool and make the most valuable picks possible. But that ultimate goal can sometimes conflict with a goal of "I just want to survive the first month." 

Any pool of a decent-sized contestant base will generally require picks into the second half of the season, and a fair amount of the larger pools will require you to get to the end of the season to win. Maximizing your 4-week survival rate is not always the same as maximizing your chances of surviving 16, 17, or 18 weeks.

But as a general rule, you will get more value from saving the most valuable teams (highest future value) and using them later when a lot of the pool has used them. They also won't be as popular as early in the season, but the crowd is on a riskier choice out of necessity, while you can play a big favorite late and still be mostly unique from the crowd.

🤔 The Week 1 Dilemma

Right out of the gate, there’s going to be a tough decision to be made. A lot of the decision will come down to the mechanics of your pool but here’s how Jason sees Week 1:

The Bengals are the biggest favorite and the only team favored by more than a touchdown, so picking them gives your entry the best chance of advancing out of Week 1. But they are pretty popular, at around 33% of all picks, and we also have them rated as one of the four most valuable teams for the season, with several other upcoming weeks you might want them instead. If you are in a really small pool, where your odds of winning are higher than larger pools, you might want to use Cincinnati as a conservative play.

Seattle is the counterexample, as the Seahawks are facing a Denver team that is projected near the bottom of the league. They might not be as big of a favorite for the remainder of the season as they are this week. Given their relatively lower popularity and low value for the future, they look like a good option, particularly in larger pools, even with taking on a little more risk than taking the Bengals in week one.

📈Link To Discount: https://bit.ly/47ccEmB

💸Link To Free Trial: https://bit.ly/3Z9qkDQ

🔨 The Tools To Success

The thought of clicking through every team and game each week doesn’t get me excited so I personally need a tool to help me make decisions each week. Just like with our golf one & done leagues, PoolGenius has a tool to help optimize your path in Survivors.

They will show you the most important metrics each week including future value AND pick popularity which I wouldn’t know how to gather myself.

As you can see above, The Seahawks are slightly less likely to win Week 1 compared to the Bengals but Seattle has very little future value — unlikely to be favored by this much ever again.

I personally have a great relationship with PoolGenius and use their tools for golf One & Done as well as March Madness. They are giving the RickRunGood community a discount up to 55% and a free trial. Can’t beat that.

📈Link To Discount: https://bit.ly/47ccEmB

🫵 You Matter The Most

Awww, that’s sweet. But it’s true. All of the information in the world does not help you if you use it incorrectly. The decisions you have to make are completely reliant on your league. The difference between a 50 person Survivor and a 5,000 person Survivor is the difference between Scottie Scheffler’s golf game and mine.

Depending on the number of opponents, specific rules, payout structure and a million other things — your best options are completely unique to you.

This is the biggest advantage to the PoolGenius tool. Before you are given any information, you’ll enter the specifics of your league. If you have multiple entries, you can tell the tool. And you’ll repeat this for every league you’re in.

That way your weekly recommendations and information is customized and specific to you.

💵 Put Your Money Where Your Data Is

There are countless online leagues that you can enter, find the one(s) that are right for you. Below is a list of my favorites:

RunGood NFL Survivor 2024
🔗 Join Link: https://bit.ly/3Z65yOw
💵 $50/entry
💰 $22,500 Prize if filled
🎙️ Hosted by RickRunGood
📝 Our Official Listener League

RunGood Touchdown One & Done
🔗 Join Link: https://bit.ly/4dBvx4Z
💵 $25/entry
💰 Pays Out Top 5%
🎙️ Hosted by RickRunGood
📝 Choose one player each week to score TDs, cannot be used again

NFL Survivor World Championship
🔗 Join Link: https://bit.ly/3XpexJr
💵 $100/entry
💰 $1,000,000 Guaranteed
🎙️ Hosted by Phil Hellmuth
📝 WWE-style title belt to the winner

NFL Pick 5 Against The Spread
🔗 Join Link: https://bit.ly/3yZ9iqG
💵 $100/entry
💰 $250,000 Guaranteed
🎙️ Hosted by SplashSports
📝 Basically an online version of the Circa Millions or SuperContest

These contests are being run on SplashSports, where we host our weekly golf contests as well as the season-long One & Done leagues. They are currently legal and fully regulated in 40+ states as well as Canada.

I hope you find all of this helpful, enjoy the season!