🦌 Last Stop Before Scotland

📢 Fore, Please:

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🏆 Last Week’s Optimal Lineup

Cam Davis: $7,200 | 121.5 PTS
Min Woo Lee: $10,500 | 119.0 PTS
Davis Thompson: $8,300 | 117.5 PTS
Akshay Bhatia: $9,800 | 116.0 PTS
Aaron Rai: $8,800 | 113.5 PTS
Rico Hoey: $5,400 | 113.5 PTS
TOTAL: $50,000 | 701.0 PTS

🔥 Comeback Cam

Cam Davis secured his second PGA TOUR victory last week with both coming at the Rocket Mortgage Classic (2024 & 2021). He also joined an exclusive list of golfers who played “just well enough” on Sunday to get the job done.

Davis gained 1.92 strokes to the field in the final round which is only the third time this season that 1) the winner has gained less than 2.0 strokes in the final round and 2) wasn’t in the final group.

For example, Nick Dunlap lost 0.72 strokes in the final round of The American Express but he already had a three shot cushion heading into the final round — so he doesn’t count for this stat.

Davis joins Brice Garnett (Puerto Rico Open) and Austin Eckroat (Cognizant Classic) to accomplish the feat this year. All three were in the penultimate group.

😭 Oh No, Akshay

Davis’ victory came at the expense of Akshay Bhatia who faltered on the 72nd, three-putting his way to a bogey and a runner-up finish. That will leave a bad taste in his mouth but the body of work for Bhatia has been stellar.

There are only 12 golfers on TOUR this year to gain at least 1.00 stroke/round in at least 50 rounds. Bhatia is one of those dozen but has played more rounds than anyone else on that list.

🏆 Mid-Year Most Valuable Golfers

It’s July — that’s crazy. We are halfway through the calendar year. Let’s shell out a mid-year award to the Most Valuable Golfer.

There are a lot of ways I could do this, but here’s where I settled.

I wanted to use something that was tied to performance expectation. I chose DraftKings Salary since that closely aligns with the betting odds and that would be an indication about how the public (and oddsmakers) perceive each golfer in a given week.

I then compared the number of DraftKings Points Gained (adjusted for field) to each golfer’s average salary to produce the table above.

The way that it reads — “Scottie Scheffler has gained 4.03 points to the field for every $1,000 of salary”.

In a year of domination, Scheffler remains at the top by a wide margin, followed by Xander Schauffele and Rory McIlroy. The next name might surprise you.

Mark Hubbard is gaining 2.84 points for every $1,000 of salary this year — the 4th best mark on TOUR. He hasn’t missed a cut in 2024 and has averaged a price tag of just $7,217. He could be lauded as one of the most valuable golfers on TOUR.

You can read through the list yourself but I highlighted the golfers who have an average salary below $8,000.

🥴 Kimsanity

In 2018, Michael Kim did the unthinkable at the John Deere Classic. He won by eight shots after missing five of his last six cuts entering the week.

After the win, he would go on to miss the cut or WD in 47 of his next 53 events. In 2022, Kim went back down to the Korn Ferry Tour, regained his card and has been pretty good ever since. And right now, he’s one of the best “trending players”.

In the last 36 rounds, Michael Kim is playing 0.49 strokes over his 100 round baseline. Nearly all of those gains are coming from tee-to-green improvements.

Since the Valspar Championship in March, Kim has made the weekend in 7/10 starts while earning (4) Top 20s along the way.

💰 Winners On The Cheap

There are a combined eight wins on the PGA TOUR and Korn Ferry Tour this year by players in this field. The most expensive is Nick Dunlap ($8,900) while all other winners can be had for $7,300 or less.

The only multi-time winner is Harry “Big Rig” Higgs who won back-to-back KFT starts in May. He’s also, by far, the best player in 2024 of those on that list.

Higgs doesn’t have enough rounds to qualify for KFT stats but he’s been hitting the fairway 64.29% of the time which would rank him ~40th on the circuit which is a significant improvement over previous years on the PGA TOUR. He’s been a scoring machine and is certainly headed in the right direction.

🌭Hot Diggity Dog 🗽

On July 4th, the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest will commence without Joey Chestnut — the 16x champ including the last eight in a row. The field is wide open and I’ve done a little hot dog research.

Geoffrey Esper (-120) is the deserving favorite but James Webb (+200) is a problem. Esper is the seasoned vet, at 49, and holds 19 eating records. He’s never won the Hot Dog Eating Contest and competing in the Joey Chestnut era has certainly hurt his legacy. Maybe he’s the Jason Day of eating. Incredible talent, flashes of unreal brilliance but has left us expecting more hardware.

If Esper is Day then Webb is Ludvig Aberg. This guy has set six world records since March of this year alone. They run the gamut — 13.5 pounds of fudge to 224 chicken wings. He has a complete game, no flaws. He has (9) tour wins in the last 12 months. The sky’s the limit.

On the women’s side, Miki Sudo (-1600) is the massive favorite. She’s won this event nine of the last ten years. Expectations are for Sudo to run away with it again, but Michelle Lesco could provide some pressure and also hit her own prop (25.5) along the way.

Lesco is the only woman to win this event since Sudo’s run began. Her 25.5 hot dogs (and buns!) prop seems much too low. She’s averaged 27.2 dogs per year over the last 11 years. She’s hit 32 dogs (2017) and 30.75 (2021) so we know she has the upside.

Here’s how I’ll be spending my Independence Day:

Tail (or Fade): https://play.underdogfantasy.com/es-DNVs03SnwI

Obviously, it’s America’s birthday — I’m just trying to have a little fun and sweat something along the way. Will you join me?

🪤 Spieth Sets The Trap

What in the world are we supposed to do with Jordan Spieth? The good news:

1. 2x winner of this event, best course history of anyone in the field.

2. Favorite to win!

3. Only 6.4% projected ownership!

Normally, I’d be breaking my wrist to click his name but I can’t help the growing concerns as I hover over his name.

1. His last finish inside the Top 10 was in February.

2. Lingering wrist injury.

3. Hasn’t played here since 2015.

Are we walking into a trap by playing him in O&Ds or is he the obvious play of the week? I’m torn.

Spieth grades out third for me (phew!) which means I could feel comfortable playing either Straka or Im. Both will be popular but even a single digit Aaron Rai could be interesting.

However — if I don’t play Spieth here, will I ever play him? There’s not going to be another event where I’m more comfortable unless he goes on a run the second half of the year. The bigger events will have better options. Could I really go the entire year without using Jordan Spieth? Oh boy, I just talked myself into him.,

Above is a screenshot from the PoolGenius tool that I consulted on and I recommend you check out. The tool likes Min Woo Lee more than Jaeger thanks to the increased odds in the outright market and the similar selection rate.

⭐ Before You Go …

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