🌞 Good Ole Island Livin'

🌞 Good Ole Island Livin'

Sony Open Preview | Stats, Trends & More!

Good morning! Are you ready for your first Cut Sweat of the year? I am! A full field event in Hawaii really makes my heart sing. There’s plenty to jump into so let’s get started!

- Rick

🔃 Ownership Pivots

Alex Smalley (15%) ▶ Denny McCarthy (6.1%)Smalley had a great finish to 2022 but with six weeks off from competition, who knows the form he’ll bring to Honolulu. McCarthy is shorter but more accurate than Smalley off-the-tee and he’s the best bermudagrass putter in the field.

Corey Conners (22%) ▶ Maverick McNealy (9.8%)The case for Conners is pretty weak. Since the TOUR Championship, six starts ago, he’s lost a total of 5.6 strokes to the field — which doesn’t include his dismal showing at the Presidents Cup. Yes, he’s putted well at Waialae in the past but that’s about it. McNealy has (5) straight Top 27 finishes, gaining at least 4.5 strokes in each of those events.

*Note: These ownership projections are subject to change. Consult RickRunGood.com for the latest numbers.

👊 What’s The Deal With Billy Ho?

Billy Horschel told Sports Illustrated last week that he is “hitting it like crap” and was planning to skip the Sony Open to get right. Well, as of right now, Horschel is still very much in this field and someone that I’ve actually been interested in playing.

He was excellent on the weekend in Maui, gaining over four strokes to the field in those two rounds. He’s finished 7th and 36th in his two trips to this event and he has the lowest projected ownership of anyone over $9,000.

🚨 Launch Day: RunGoodProps YouTube

Today I’m launching a new YouTube Channel — RunGoodProps. It’ll be a short (~10 minutes) data-driven dive into the Props board to identify the options with the biggest edge. This will cover all sports, not just golf!

For now, the shows will be Wednesday & Saturday, both at 11am ET. Please subscribe to the channel and you can watch the first stream this morning.

🚒 Riding The Hot Hands

There are currently 37 (!!) different matchups available on BroThrow right now. Here are the ones with the biggest win probabilities using the last 36 rounds of data for both golfers:

Taylor Montgomery (+106 | 75.94%) over Keith Mitchell (-127 | 24.06%)Tom Hoge (+110 | 64.69%) over Corey Conners (-132 | 35.31%)Kevin Streelman (+102 | 55.64%) over Ryan Palmer (-122 | 44.36%)BroThrow is a match-making website where you don’t have to pay juice to the house. We have a private group of 300 users who you can match bets with — here’s the link to join if you’re interested.

🎯 Opportunity Breeds Opportunity

Leading into the Sentry Tournament of Champions, the three leaders of Plus Opportunities (birdie looks 10’ or closer) were Scottie Scheffler (T7), Tom Hoge (T3) and Collin Morikawa (2nd). That worked out pretty well. Here’s the leaders for this week in Plus Opportunities Gained in the last 50 rounds:

1. Carl Yuan +0.94

2. Ben Taylor +0.69

3. Tyson Alexander +0.67

4. Tom Hoge +0.64

5. Eric Cole +0.63

You can find the whole list of Plus Opportunities and more at RickRunGood.com

🎥 Let’s Do It Live

If there’s anything else you’d like to see me dive into, we can cover it on the Wednesday Live Chat — today at 3pm ET. If you go and drop your question/comment now, I’ll go through as many as possible.