🐯 Cry Me A Riviera

Riviera Preview & Phoenix Review | Stats, Trends & More!

Author

Rick Gehman
February 13, 2024

The last hurrah of the West Coast Swing is a banger — a Signature Event which will also feature Tiger Woods. This Siggy is unlike the others since there will be a 36 hole cut. Now — it’s a small cut, going from 70 to Top 50 and ties PLUS anyone within 10 shots of the lead. There’s a decent chance that no one gets cut or just an unlucky few.

I’ll be on the grounds Tuesday and Saturday for sure, maybe more throughout the week. Saturday, I’ll be at the TravisMathew Tour Bus — come stop by. They usually have some type of LA/TM hat collab that can only be found at this event.

See you out there
Rick

PS — There are over 16,000 (!!) nerdy golf people who read this newsletter. You can join them by subscribing below.

🏆 Last Week’s Optimal Lineup

Charley Hoffman: $6,500 | 134.0 PTS
Nick Taylor: $7,200 | 132.0 PTS
Scottie Scheffler: $11,600 | 123.5 PTS
Sam Burns: $9,600 | 117.0 PTS
Andrew Novak: $6,200 | 103.5 PTS
Maverick McNealy: $6,500 | 96.0 PTS
TOTAL: $47,600 | 706.0 PTS

💵 Billions & Billions & Billions

It’s been well-documented that this season has been nothing but longshot winners — with each of the first six victors all coming at odds 100-1 or longer.

If you bet $0.01 on Chris Kirk to win The Sentry then rolled those winnings over each week, you’d have $403,200,000,000. Yes, that’s $403 BILLION.

You’d be the richest person in the world with an extra $200B to spare. You could buy:

  • 2,016 F-35 Lightning II Fighter Jets (the most expensive jet in the world)

  • You’d be more valuable than Egypt! All of it — ($398B GDP)

  • The entirety of Costco ($320B) & Porsche ($80B) and still have $3B left.

  • You could have bought every seat (65,000) in Allegiant Stadium for the Super Bowl ($604.5M) with just your spare change.

  • And so on, and so on, and so on ….

🍀❌ No Luck, Chuck

Charley Hoffman found a scorching hot game last week and posted his first Top 10 finish since the 2022 Rocket Mortgage Classic (T10). The sick part is … he probably should have won.

Hoffman gained 16.26 strokes to the field last week which is usually good enough to win an event on the PGA TOUR.

Since the start of the 2020 season, there have only been (13) instances of a golfer gaining at least 16 strokes to the field and finishing second. Unfortunately for Charley, he’s on the list twice — the only golfer in the world with two appearances.

🍁 Maple Leaf Winner

Thanks to an epic playoff win last week, Nick Taylor has notched his second win in just his last 15 starts. Only Viktor Hovland (3) has more wins in his last 15 starts and Taylor is tied with Lucas Glover and Wyndham Clark for second on that list.

Notables & Number of Wins in L15 Starts:

  • Scottie Scheffler: 1

  • Rory McIlroy: 1

  • Collin Morikawa: 1

  • Will Zalatoris: 1

  • Ludvig Aberg: 1

  • Xander Schauffele: 0

  • Patrick Cantlay: 0

🎯 The Scottie Stat of the Week

Here’s every golfer to win at least one PGA TOUR event since January 1st, 2023 — sorted by SG: Tee-to-Green:

🦘 Turning Back The Clock

The veteran Aussie is quietly playing some of the best golf of his illustrious career. Over the last 36 rounds, he’s gained 1.9 strokes per round which is the highest “raw” mark of anyone in this field. I mention “raw” since it includes a few DP World Tour events and I know someone will reply to this email and tell me that I’m an idiot (probably deserving).

Nonetheless, this is the first time that Scott has had a stretch of +1.9/round golf over 36 rounds since February of 2020. That stretch included, wait for it, a win at the Genesis Invitational.

🤑 Massive O&D Week

Speaking of Adam Scott, I really wish I had the stones to play him in O&D this week but with this massive purse ($4,000,000 to first), I need to stick to the plan.

Above is a screenshot from the PoolGenius tool that I consulted on. This is based on the variety of factors like future value and who I have already used. The recommendation here is to use Rory McIlroy, Viktor Hovland or Collin Morikawa. You can see how the scores grade out and the short-list it provides.

Again, this is specific to me and my league. You should get this tool yourself and enter your pool details and previous selections so that the results are custom for you.

You can get a free trial right now.

🤒 Cause For Concern?

Rory McIlroy had a very “un-Rory-like” start at Pebble Beach where he lost 5.2 strokes to the field over three rounds. That was his worst single tournament since the 2021 PLAYERS Championship.

If you’re a Rory backer, the good news is that he doesn’t stay on the mat for very long. The last time that Rory lost strokes to the field in consecutive events was nearly six years ago. He lost 0.820 at the 2018 Honda Classic and then 1.85 at the Valspar Championship. It doesn’t happen often.

📈 Lines Moving In 3…2…1…

Sometimes when I post Underdog entries on Twitter, the lines move very quickly. I’m certainly not a line-mover personally, but we as a collective, definitely are.

I’m going to post this entry here, so you guys have access first. It’s certainly not a guaranteed winner (nothing is) but it’s a few of the props that I like for round one. You can feel free to split them up, tail them or fade them entirely.

Whatever you decide, you should decide quickly — clicking here will pre-load the entry for you.

Tiger Woods: 10.5 Greens in Regulation (Lower) ⬇️
These were the second most difficult greens to hit last year and haven’t ranked outside the Top 10 in half a decade. Woods would need to hit more than the field average despite losing 11.5 strokes on approach in his last seven rounds.

Jordan Spieth: 7.5 Fairways Hit (Lower) ⬇️
Spieth has been splendid on second shots but fairly miserable off-the-tee. He ranks 79th in driving accuracy with a significant right miss. The field average FIR is 7.18 so Spieth only needs to be slightly worse to cash this side.

Will Zalatoris: 13.5 Cumulative Par 5 Strokes (Lower) ⬇️
I think Zalatoris is back and the oddsmakers haven’t caught up yet. He gained 3.5 strokes from tee-to-green in three rounds at Torrey Pines and another 2.7 from tee-to-green in two measured rounds at the AMEX. The Par-5 cumulative scoring average should sit ~13.7. Zalatoris would need to play them at 2-under to make it a winner.

Xander Schauffele: 12.5 Greens in Regulation (Higher) ⬆️
Early in the week, I expect the course to be a bit more reception than normal. Los Angeles has gotten a year’s worth of rain in a few weeks. If you wanted to skip the tail on Woods and Spieth, I’d understand, but here’s the 2nd best GIR machine (80%) getting the nod.

Adam Scott: 69.0 Strokes (Lower) ⬇️
I’m buying all the Scott stock for this week, including an opening round 68 or better. If we do a little napkin math and call the R1 scoring average 70.016, Scott would need to pick up two shots on the field. He’s done that in nine of his last 14 rounds.

 🐳 Let’s Splash Around

Our tiers contest is back (and bigger) for the Genesis Invitational. Now with a fully guaranteed purse of $5,400.

  • $20/entry

  • Pick (1) golfer from (6) different tiers

  • 50 out of 300 entries will cash

  • First Place is $810

  • Play Now: Splash.com/RickRunGood

⭐ Quick Hits

Reply

or to participate.