🥶 Feeling Blue (Monster)

📢 Fore, Please…

Ahh, it’s good to be back in the saddle.

Programming note: I am back on PGA TOUR Live this week for the BetCast (tune in on ESPN+) so I’m traveling to Florida. This week’s LIVE CHAT will be Tuesday at 3:00PM ET.

Let’s get to work.
Rick

🍔 Matty FitzPatty

This guy! Since the start of 2022, he has six wins globally — which is the 8th most in the world. Notables that he’s ahead of include Max Homa, Patrick Reed, Tommy Fleetwood, Patrick Cantlay, and basically everyone else.

Obviously I opened the window to include his U.S. Open victory but if you want to zoom it — he has four wins in his last 11 starts worldwide. All four wins since the Ryder Cup — think about that! No one else in the world has four wins since the Ryder Cup … Fitzy does.

It’s no surprise that 2026 has been the best year of his career but it would be the ninth time that he’s gained at least one stroke to the field. He keeps finding ways to get better and he’s entering the prime of his career.

Note: I almost made this section title “Quadruple Patty”. Which, looking back — I probably should have!

🦩 Down At Doral

It’s been 10 years since the PGA TOUR went to Trump National Doral (Blue Monster) but LIV used it for each of the last four years. Let’s get on the same page about the total usage of the course in professional events:

2025: LIV Miami (Individual)
2024: LIV Miami (Individual)
2023: LIV Miami (Team)
2022: LIV Miami (Team)
2016: WGC Cadillac Championship
2015: WGC Cadillac Championship
2014: WGC Cadillac Championship
2013: WGC Cadillac Championship
2012: WGC Cadillac Championship
2011: WGC Cadillac Championship

Those are the last ten instances but the WGCs go back another four years to 2007.

Justin Rose and Adam Scott have played here the most and both have won at this course.

🖼️ The Set Up

There might not be another course on the schedule that is so set-up dependent. In the history of this event, 19-under has been the winning score and 4-under has been the winning score — in back to back years.

Last year, Marc Leishman won LIV Miami at 6-under across three rounds.

My hunch is that this is going to definitely skew to the more difficult side of things. I don’t think the PGA TOUR is going to show up at a venue for the first time in a decade and not make it more difficult than LIV. The Twittersphere would chew up a Mickey Mouse set-up and spit it out.

If I’m right, a few strokes under par each day might be good enough to get you into contention.

The biggest defense will be the distance — playing 7,700 yards as a par-72. The par-5s are monsters, averaging 610 yards which would be the second longest average par-5 on the TOUR schedule since the start of last year. That’s behind only Oakmont which was a U.S. Open set-up.

I find the driving task to be quite difficult. Obviously length is one issue but there are also water hazards and bunkers everywhere. The other thing to consider, especially when comparing to next week, is that there is no “magic number” of distance that sets you apart.

Next week, there will be a few drives where carrying 310+ yards puts you in an extremely advantageous position because you can remove the trouble. I cannot say the same about the Blue Monster. It’s just long and there’s not a point where a player could conceivably overpower it.

These are the best players in the field on long golf courses, which are courses longer than 7,400 yards. Sungjae Im stands out to me. He’s not particularly long but I think long courses also share attributes that often demand ball-striking prowess and a competent short-game for the inevitable amount of missed greens in regulation.

 📈 So Many Stats

There are a lot of benefits to being on the PGA TOUR Live coverage but my favorite is the sheer amount of research and information that they provide us with. No stone has been unturned and they ensure that we are all prepared with pages of information.

Here are a few of my favorite nuggets that have come out this week, with all credit to the research and production team at the PGA TOUR.

• Scottie Scheffler averages 76 days between wins, the “Shortest Average Days Between Wins” in TOUR History (of those with 10+ wins).

  • Rick Note: it’s been 93 days since his last win!

• Jordan Spieth had made 15 consecutive starts without a Top 10 finish, tied for his second longest streak in his PGA TOUR career.

• Collin Morikawa has a Driving Accuracy Percentage of 73.48 in Signature events since 2024, the best of any player.

• Tommy Fleetwood has (7) Top 10 finishes at Signature Events without a win since 2024, the most of anyone in that span.

 🔦 One & Done Dilemma

This is arguably the most difficult OAD week of the year. Obviously it’s a massive purse, so we want to get it right but it’s a course that no one has played on in at least a decade.

It could also be one of the weaker Signature Events ever (?) without Rory, Xander, Fitz, Ludvig, MacIntyre, Cantlay …

There’s a ton on the line but do you really feel comfortable doing anything? Here at the golfers in this field that have already been used the most in the RRG OAD:

• 62%: Si Woo Kim

• 59%: Russell Henley

• 51%: Collin Morikawa

• 51% Scottie Scheffler

• 43%: Hideki Matsuyama

• 40%: Maverick McNealy

• 39% Tommy Fleetwood

My spidey senses say that Cameron Young will probably be one of, if not the, most popular options for this week. He’s only been used by 30% of the league and he’s got the second shortest odds. If I hadn’t used him already this would definitely be the spot.

It’s actually an easier decision to make if you’re chasing because there are so many good “high upside, low owned” options like Viktor, Min Woo, Woodland, Spaun. If I needed to make up ground, I’d be comfortable with any of those options.

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