🦭 Seal of Approval

We are creatures of habit — Monday is a deep dive, Tuesday we remove the noise, Wednesday we prepare and deploy, then we watch the event play out Thursday through Sunday.

Break that habit this week! This event starts on Wednesday and will finish on Saturday, so it’s time to cram!

I’ll be on-site this week, if you want to say hello. At this point the plan is to be there Wednesday, Saturday and Sunday (for the APGA Final Round).

Rick

PS — There are over 15,800 (!!) nerdy golf people who read this newsletter. You can join them by subscribing below.

🏆 Last Week’s Optimal Lineup

Nick Dunlap: $6,500 | 166.0 PTS
Xander Schauffele: $10,900 | 149.0 PTS
Christiaan Bezuidenhout: $7,300 | 148.0 PTS
Kevin Yu: $6,300 | 145.5 PTS
Justin Thomas: $9,800 | 141.5 PTS
Adam Hadwin: $8,300 | 136.0 PTS
TOTAL: $49,100 | 886.0 PTS

🖼️ Nick Dunlap’s Three Round Damage

Nick Dunlap did a lot of incredible and noteworthy things last week, but my favorite is how many strokes he gained to the field in just three rounds. On Saturday night he had already accumulated 16.12 strokes which is an insane number. That total would have been enough to win 41 of the last 58 TOUR events (70.7%).

It was also the 7th most Strokes Gained through three rounds since the start of the 2023 season (see above). All the golfers who gained at least that amount went on to win.

With Nick’s victory, he became the 4th golfer since the start of 2023 to lose strokes in the final round (-0.716) and still win.

🚀 Full Send on JT

Despite Justin Thomas’ disappointing Sunday round, he is showing all the signs of being “back baby!” He gained 2.5 strokes on approach (in two measured rounds) last week, which makes four straight measured events in which he’s gained on approach.

During those four events, he’s finished 5th, 4th, 3rd and 3rd. If JT is an engine, his approach play is his gasoline.

His final round last week was actually a bit bizarre. He hit a few sour shots on par-5s that sunk his chances of winning and buried his stats.

Despite that, he had NINE approaches within 15’ for birdie. That’s two more opportunities than the field average on Sunday. He also had a few more just outside of 15’ that could have really propelled his round.

Plenty of good signs on the statistical front for JT.

🧑‍🤝‍🧑 Double Your Pleasure, Double Your Fun

Both the North Course and South Course will be in play this week with one round at each on Wednesday and Thursday before a 36-hole cut and the final two rounds at the South Course.

The South Course will ask for distance off-the-tee, with a little accuracy (more on that in second), plus stellar long iron play.

Checking in at 7,765 yards, with thick rough, the South Course is a monster. However, with fairway widths however between 24-28 yards wide there is more benefit to finding the fairway than you’d expect.

Last year, (2) of the Top 15 finishes were inside the Top 20 in Driving Distance while (8) of them were inside the Top 20 in Driving Accuracy.

It’s anecdotal and a tiny sample size but it’s worth noting that Torrey Pines does allow for a variety of ways to beat it, as long as you are elite in those areas.

Elite Driving: List, Rahm, Day, Woods, Watson
Smash Greens: Homa, Leishman, Day, Woods
Top Notch Short-Game: Reed
Finish Before Hurricane: Snedeker

💣 Don’t Step on a Mine

There is a ton of top-end volatility at this event over the years. The golfers with the best odds to win generally finish at the two ends of the leaderboard. Either a great finish or a missed cut, and I’ve got the data to prove it.

For all golfers +2000 to shorter in the last five years, those at the Farmers have gained 2.10 strokes to the field on average — the second best rate of any event. They also account for a 45% Top 10 rate which is the 5th best of any event.

However! Those golfers have also tallied a 20% missed cut rate which is the 5th highest rate on TOUR.

For perspective, those same golfers at the U.S. Open have only missed the cut 3.7% of the time in the same timeframe.

Early odds show these golfers at 20-1 or shorter:
Schauffele, Cantlay, Homa, Morikawa, Aberg.

There will be carnage at the top of the board, but those who survive are likely to contend.

🤏 That’s Not A Gimme

The word of the week is poa annua. You will hear it CONSTANTLY.

According to Wikipedia, poa annua is a widespread low-growing turfgrass in temperate climates. According to golfers, it’s a mind-boggling annoying weed that makes putting greens more like Plinko boards.

However you define it, it’s a key feature at Torrey Pines and it’s one of the reasons that these putting surfaces are very difficult.

The average make% of putts from 4’-8’ on TOUR is 72% –
at the South Course it’s 67%.

The average make% of putts from 9’-15’ on TOUR is 33% –
at the South Course it’s 29%.

The former is the second lowest make% on TOUR from that range while the latter is the lowest on TOUR. Simply put — fewer putts from 4’-15’ go in at the South Course than basically anywhere else in the PGA TOUR universe.

Here are the best players in both of those ranges with the highlights showing those who appear on both lists.

 🦤 The Best Plinko Players

Here are the best poa annua putters who have played at least 30 rounds of the surface since 2019. Couple of Torrey winners on this list with a few more who have been close.

⭐ Tracking Has Never Been Easier

🤵 You’ll Like The Way You Draft, I Guarantee It!

We are back with a new Splash Weekly contest this week and thanks to the love and support of the One & Done contest, this weekly contest is now guaranteed.

• Pick one golfer from each of six tiers

• $20/entry, 200 spots available

• Payouts to the Top 25

• Join Now: https://bit.ly/3Sa7UXx

👂Help Me, Help You!

In 2024, you’re going to see more content from me than ever — with an emphasis on this email newsletter. If there is a question you’ve always wondered, a problem you’ve been unable to solve, or a deep-dive into any golf topic you want — let me know! Hit reply and tell me how I can help.

😋 Give Me More Content!

• You can read my Torrey Pines statistical profile in my written preview on RickRunGood.com.

• Join me on Tuesday at 3PM ET for Farmers Live Chat — where I’ll answer your questions and cover so much more.