👑 Crossing The Pond

📢 Fore, Please:

• Our friends at Splash Sports are going nuts and have guaranteed our Open Championship Listener League for $25,000, but wait there’s more! If you pick the optimal lineup, they are giving you a $100,000 bonus. 🤑

• This week’s Scottish Open Listener League is also guaranteed and already filling fast.

🏆 Last Week’s Optimal Lineup

Davis Thompson: $9,600 | 161.5 PTS
Luke Clanton: $8,600 | 139.0 PTS
C.T. Pan: $7,000 | 138.0 PTS
Michael Thorbjornsen: $7,700 | 137.5 PTS
Carson Young: $6,700 | 130.5 PTS
Ben Griffin: $7,900 | 129.5 PTS
TOTAL: $47,500 | 836.0 PTS

🔥 Davis’ Day at The Deere

It was clear that Davis Thompson was headed in the right direction, entering last week with a T9 at Pinehurst and a T2 in Detroit. However, this is much more than just a heater.

Since the start of 2024, Davis Thompson has gained 1.23 strokes/round — the 6th best mark on TOUR (min 50 rounds).

Thanks to his volume (67 rounds) he’s gained the 4th most strokes (+82.39) on TOUR. It’s the most of anyone not named Scheffler, Schauffele or McIlroy.

🥈 The Best of the Rest

Collin Morikawa is the best player in the world without a win this year. I think I can defend that statement pretty easily.

Since January 1st, he’s gained +1.40 strokes/round which is the 7th best on any of the six tours that I track on RickRunGood.com.

Since the Masters, he jumps to +2.25 strokes/round and he’s doing it in the “most Collin way” possible. He’s picking up 1.21 strokes per round ball-striking including gaining 2.5+ on approach in four of his last five starts.

His putter — the putter! — has been an unstoppable force. His measly 0.33 stroke loss at the PGA Championship is the only time he’s lost on the greens since the Masters.

And if you’re looking for a good predictor of wins, try looking at each golfer’s ceiling. Collin Morikawa has gained at least five strokes in 10.71% of his rounds this year. It’s the best mark of anyone without a win and the three guys above him have nine combined.

👸 More Course History Than You Might Think

While it’s true that this tournament only has two years of PGA TOUR history, that doesn’t nearly tell the full story. The Scottish Open dates back to 1972 and has even been held at the Renaissance Club since 2019.

The first four editions at The Renaissance Club were exclusively DP World Tour events before the co-sanctioned status that we have today. With the crossover in tours, there are plenty of golfers with more course history than you’d expect. So here’s everyone in the field and the entirety of their history at The Renaissance Club.

By TOUR standards, we still don’t have a ton of data on this course but this is probably the last year I’ll say that. It’s growing quickly and the trends are starting to get stronger.

🤪 Mad Lad Bobby Mac

Robert MacIntyre was moments from winning his National Open last year before Rory McIlroy gutted him on the 18th green. Bob is back for revenge with an impressive record at home.

While many would crumble in the pressure, MacIntyre has thrived in Scotland. He’s +1.58 strokes/round in 31 rounds played at home — the third best mark of anyone in this field (Fleetwood and McIlroy).

🐈‍⬛ Look What The Cat(lin) Dragged In

LIV Golf is back on the schedule this week, heading to Valderrama. There’s a really interesting situation brewing that we will need to keep an eye on — and it’s American John Catlin.

Firstly, I’m not sure if Catlin will play on LIV this week. He’s filled in for an injured Charles Howell III in each of the last two LIV events but I could not find anything regarding CHIII’s status for Andalucía. I’ll keep my eyes peeled and if you see anything, please let me know.

If Catlin does tee it up, he’s rather dangerous.

He won back-to-back events on the Asian Tour in March and April then finished T24 and T7 in his two LIV starts. Last week, he fell in a playoff at the International Series Morocco and finished for second — his sixth Top 10 finish in his last eight starts.

🤬 Rahm In Spain, What Could Go Wrong?

There haven’t been too many surprise winners on LIV this year, minus Brendan Steele. He’s the only golfer on the circuit who has won but is losing strokes this season.

The rest of the winners have all picked up at least 0.76 strokes/round on their competition. Which is why Jon Rahm’s lack of victories seems like an outlier.

Rahm leads LIV at +2.15 strokes/round and hasn’t finished worse than T10 in any event. This is where “win luck” comes into play and Rahm hasn’t found the recipe just yet. But it’s coming and it’s probably coming this week.

🏇 Season’s Second Trip To Kentucky

If you haven’t had enough golf yet, I’m happy to remind you that there’s an alternate field event in Kentucky this week!

20-year old phenom, Luke Clanton, is back in action after racking up a T10 and T2 in his last two starts. Since this event is also a co-sanctioned event with the DP World Tour, there is a noticeable European flair to the field.

Johannes Veerman is picking up a cool +1.30 strokes/round in his last 36 — all played across the pond. He finished T8 at the European Open and T10 at the KLM Open. That means he has (4) Top 10 finishes in his last eight starts.

Andrea Pavan missed the cut at the BMW International Open last week, which stopped his stretch of back-to-back Top 5 finishes. I worry about his driver, but the rest of his game has been sharp in 2024.

🐶 Spieth, The Ex-Magician

We’ve already talked about MacIntyre’s successes in Scotland and now there’s a case to be made that he’s playing the best golf of his career.

Combine that with two golfers who are in the midst of significant struggles and I’ve got myself a three-leg entry for Round 1 that pays 6.3x.

Tail or Fade: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/es-0ub3oEPJFV

I know that Saturday’s round at the John Deere Classic showed signs of life for Jordan Spieth but he failed to capitalize on Sunday, quickly struggling again. He’s been unable to summon the magic at Augusta National or Harbour Town so links golf is really his last hope before we smash the SUPER PANIC button.

Tail or Fade: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/es-0ub3oEPJFV

📚 Course History Runs The Show

It’s quite clear that the initial One & Done ownership selections are favoring course history with Tommy Fleetwood and Tom Kim leading the way — followed by Robert MacIntyre and Matthew Fitzpatrick.

While this is a strong field, it’s not necessarily deep. There are dozens of golfers who will play this week that do not regularly tee it up on the PGA TOUR which makes me believe the composition is quite top-heavy.

I spent a lot of time on my Monday Preview Show trying to determine if I was going to be early or late on Viktor Hovland. In fantasy formats, I probably need to see one more good start. However, in this “all or nothing” type of setting — I think he’s one of the better O&D options.

He’s been trending in the right direction and he’s certainly capable of winning this event at low ownership. I don’t have him earmarked for any events in the future and his ~5% ownership provides a ton of leverage in the late stages of this season.

If not Viktor, who I have used in quite a few of my entries already, I’ll be clicking Hideki Matsuyama’s name. He offers the same upside and low ownership (3%) which is incredibly valuable right now.

Above is a screenshot from the PoolGenius tool that I consulted on and I recommend you check out.

⭐ Before You Go …

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