💵 And That Is Dallas

📢 Quick Announcements:

• Will Zalatoris withdrew on Tuesday morning, be aware of this change.

• The RickRunGood Listener League is live on Splash and will fill soon. There are only 80 spots left and the $4,500 purse is fully guaranteed.

🏆 Last Week’s Optimal Lineup

McIlroy/Lowry: $10,700 | 148.0 PTS
Ramey/Trainer: $7,100 | 139.5 PTS
Blair/Fishburn: $6,300 | 134.0 PTS
Higgo/Fox: $8,000 | 131.5 PTS
Brehm/Hubbard: $7,000 | 131.5 PTS
Echavarria/Greyserman: $7,200 | 129.5 PTS
TOTAL: $46,300 | 814.0 PTS

📝 Warm-Up Notes

• Frankie Capan III fired a 58 in round one of the Veritex Bank Championship last week, gaining 9.60 strokes to the field. That’s the 4th best round of the year across the PGA TOUR, Korn Ferry Tour and LIV Golf.

• Many of you noticed that the TOUR didn’t have ShotLink running last week and questioned that decision. They were running/testing ShotLink 2.0 which will hopefully be released soon.

• Brendan Steele won LIV Golf Adelaide while losing 2.58 strokes putting. That’s the second worst putting performance by a winner in my entire database (back to 2008) across the PGA TOUR or LIV Golf.

💪 Power of the Par 5s

TPC Craig Ranch plays to a par-71 with only three par-5s. Each of those three holes are very gettable. If you play those holes to field average for the week and par every other hole, you’ll shoot six-under.

“But everyone gets to play those holes, Rick!” I know, I know — let’s go deeper. We need to find the golfers who 1) play well on par-5s and 2) play even better on easy par-5s.

Above are the best “Easy Par 5” golfers since the start of 2023. That’s hole many strokes they gain per hole on par-5s that are playing to a 4.6 score average or easier. Obviously the throughline is distance and/or driving ability but there are some surprises like Mackenzie Hughes and Davis Thompson (to an extent).

🧑‍🌾 At Home On The Ranch

There is a long and illustrious history of this event, dating back to 1944 — won that year by … Byron Nelson (duh!). However, don’t get fooled into looking at long-term course history since this event was moved to TPC Craig Ranch in 2021.

We have three years of data for TPC Craig Ranch so here are the best players at TPC Craig Ranch with at least two starts.

🤔 What’s The Deal With Jordan Spieth?

I hope you read that in the Jerry Seinfeld voice.

This week’s favorite (+1400) does not elicit a ton of confidence when clicking his name. These are his shortest odds since the 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (+1100) — an event where he finished T63.

He has a great record here (2nd & T9), but great history hasn’t been able to spark him lately — MC at the Masters, T39 at Harbour Town.

He’s lost strokes on approach in four of his last five starts which is quite similar to his form leading into the Ryder Cup and we all know how that went.

The short-game magic is simply an illusion right now as he’s lost strokes around-the-green in five straight events. That’s the first time in his career that he’s done that.

Jordan Spieth has made a career of defying all logic and reason, but this is a very concerning set of statistics.

🌏Another Close Call For Louis

Being a Louis Oosthuizen backer continues to cause angst no matter what tour he’s on. I will once again remind you that he’s been stellar — joining only Joaquin Niemann and Jon Rahm to gain 2+ strokes per round in the last 36 rounds for LIV Golfers. He doesn’t have a LIV trophy to show for it yet … yet!

🧇 Gooch Plays Defense

There might be something brewing for Talor Gooch as he heads back to Singapore to try and defend his title.

He’s struggled off-the-tee in each of his last three starts but that’s not a huge concern at Sentosa Golf Club. Most holes run parallel to one another, providing ample room for wayward tee shots. There are a few bad misses that will find water, but it should be more forgiving than the tree/sand-lined Grange where they played last week.

Other than that, he’s been a putting machine — gaining multiple strokes on the surfaces in six of his last seven. His iron-play has been good enough and he’ll enter with reasonable +1600 odds.

🀄 World Tour Heads East … FAR EAST!

Sebastian Soderberg has been knocking on the door this year and it’s just a matter of time before it opens. He’s played 11 times on the DP World Tourn since November and has earned (6) different Top 10 finishes. That includes consecutive runner-up finishes at the ISPA HANDA - Championship and the Hero Indian Open.

There are 15 golfers in the China Open field that have gained 1+ strokes to the field over their last 36 rounds. Soderberg headlines that group at +1.89/round.

🐶 Who Lets The Dogs Out?

Underdog is back this week, woohoo! I’ve got a few early plays that you might be interested in.

Tail or Fade: https://bit.ly/3wbPor3

Jordan Spieth 1.5 Bogeys or Worse R1: Higher ⬆️
Despite being a birdie-fest, there were still eight holes that played over par last year. It’s certainly conceivable (and likely) that Spieth makes multiple bogeys and still cards a respectable score. His short-game magic has left him and he’s one swing away from a derailment.

Alex Noren 68.5 Strokes R1: Lower ⬇️
Alex Noren has been one of the most underrated golfers on TOUR this year piling up great finishes at a variety of golf courses. He has (5) straight Top 25s at these courses: Corales, TPC San Antonio, Memorial Park, Sawgrass, PGA National.

What do those have in common? Not much! Noren is finding success indiscriminately.

Tail or Fade: https://bit.ly/3wbPor3

⚖️ Nice Even Split

As of this writing, the O&D Projected Ownership is fairly well spread-out with only (2) golfers cracking double digits and 15 different golfers above 2%. The most selected:

1. Si Woo Kim: 12.9%

2. Jason Day: 12.4%

3. Jordan Spieth: 9.6%

4. Adam Scott: 7.1%

5. Stephan Jaeger: 6.2%

6. Tom Kim: 6.0%

7. Tom Hoge: 5.5%

8. Will Zalatoris: 5.2%

The only question for Si Woo is the putter, which can lose him eight strokes or gain him four. The good news for his backers is that he’s gained over five strokes putting at TPC Craig Ranch in 10 career rounds.

If you’re considering Si Woo, shouldn’t you consider Tom Hoge? The latter has been better on approach and has the same level of volatility in his flatstick. He lost a ton on the greens in 2021 (4.3) but has gained ~1 stroke putting in each of the last two trips.

Is Si Woo 2x more likely to win this than Tom Hoge? Vegas doesn’t think so. Kim is +1800 and Hoge is +3000.

⭐ Before You Go …

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