⛰️ Rocky Mountain High

📢 Fore, Please:

It’s always a weird feeling as the PGA TOUR season winds to an end. It’s sad in a way but the golf never really stops. There is literally one week off between the TOUR Championship and the Procore Championship (formerly the Fortinet).

I don’t know what I’ll do during that week, but it’ll probably be a combination of data projects, chilling and playing golf myself. It’ll serve as a mini reset before jumping right back into Napa.

The other feeling that I tend to get this time of year is gratefulness. Another year where I got to do this for a living. It really hit me in North Carolina.

I got a last minute invite to play Pinehurst No. 10 which I couldn’t pass up. We walked the course with caddies and there was a moment on the back nine where I just stopped and soaked it all in. I’m truly living my dream. I hope you all are too or are on the path to it. But for me, my dream — couldn’t happen with you. So once again, I thank you.

Rick

💰 Contests & Content

• Our Listener League is fully guaranteed at $8,100 this week for 450 entries. That’s $1,028 for the winner ($20 entry). I’m working to find out if/how the contest will work next week with the staggered start.

• I’ve been adding vlog style content to my YouTube Membership this year as a creative outlet and additional perk for those members. A few days ago I released one with Mina & I on a recent “Mystery Trip” and I will post my vlog from Greensboro later this week.

🏆 Last Week’s Optimal Lineup

Hideki Matsuyama: $9,300 | 126.5 PTS
Xander Schauffele: $11,400 | 118.5 PTS
Sam Burns: $8,300 | 113.5 PTS
Nick Dunlap: $6,700 | 105.5 PTS
Denny McCarthy: $6,500 | 89.0 PTS
Robert MacIntyre: $7,100 | 86.5 PTS
TOTAL: $49,300 | 639.5 PTS

😰 Crisis Averted

Sunday was supposed to be a walk in the park for Hideki Matsuyama who entered the final round with a five shot lead — which was the largest 54-hole lead on TOUR this season.

After playing holes 12-15 at +4, Matsuyama had coughed up his lead before flipping the switch. He birdied both 17 and 18 to win by two — PHEW!!

Matsuyama lost 1.76 strokes to the field on Sunday, which is a rare feat for a winner.

Since the start of the 2016 season, there have only been six golfers who have lost 1+ stroke to the field in the final round AND still won the tournament. Hideki’s final round in Memphis was the 3rd biggest loss by a winner during that span.

In true sicko fashion, Matsuyama has two of the five biggest losing Sundays for a winner. Incredible.

🤮 Crisis Not Averted

Okay, maybe the word “crisis” is a bit much for Rory’s week in Memphis but it’s certainly sending up plenty of warning signals.

If you’re going to struggle, you might as well struggle throughout the bad and “get it all out of your system”.

Overall, the 13.215 strokes that McIlroy lost last week ranks as the single worst tournament of his career*. It’s only the second time, on any tour, that he’s lost over 8.1 strokes to the field.

*it’s worth noting that no-cut events will generally be the “worst” event for golfers. They are not salvaged by a cut line that would have sent him home early.

While it was ugly, McIlroy has always had a knack for bouncing-back. The last time he lost strokes to the field in back-to-back starts was July of 2021. Before that, it was March of 2018.

Could fatigue have played a role?

It’s possible. At this point in 2024, McIlroy has already played 20 events and 74 rounds which are both career highs. The chart above shows each McIlroy year through the end of August for that year. Which means McIlroy is trending towards 22 starts and 82 rounds when the playoffs are over — both would extend his already career high marks.

🃏 Should I Say It?

We’ve seen this before — a stellar week from Viktor Hovland that has given me the Warm & Fuzzies. His +8.57 ball-striking week in Memphis looked a lot like his +10.54 ball-striking week at the PGA Championship.

I might have declared him “back” after Valhalla (spoiler: he was not). Should I make another declaration? Let’s look into it.

The bad news — his short-game is still broken. He’s now lost strokes around-the-green in seven straight events. Over the last 36 rounds, there is no one in the field that has been as bad ARG as Viktor has been.

The good news — he’s flushing it. During that same 36-hole stretch, he’s the 6th best ball-striker in the field behind only Scottie, Xander, Collin, Ludvig and Rory.

The spin — Viktor is a very technical golfer with a lot of self-awareness in his swing. The assumption has always been that his game will return in a moment’s notice when something “clicks” for him. He’s one of the better golfers to try and be early on, rather than late.

👑 Cede The Throne

For the first time in a long time, Scottie Scheffler is not the King of the “Last 36 Round Rankings”. That honor now belongs to Xander Schauffele.

Obviously Schauffele (+2.88) and Scheffler (+2.80) are on a different planet right now. Scheffler has a +0.77 lead over Collin Morikawa in third who has another +0.27 stroke lead over Aaron Rai in fourth.

That means the gap between Xander and Aaron Rai is the same gap from Rai to Ben An (+0.64) who ranked 31st in this field.

🏰 Looking Mighty Pine

I really like the way Castle Pines is going to set-up this week. I did a larger course preview, using satellite imagery, on my YouTube channel this week — but here are a few nuggets.

• It says 8,130 yards on the scorecard but it’s at 6,000 feet of elevation. If you use the “2% per 1,000 feet” rule, the course will effectively play at 7,154 yards when adjusted to sea-level.

One of my favorite aspects about Castle Pines is that there is a lot of water in play, specifically around the greens. In fact, the water often cuts right up into the edge of the green which will demand elite distance control on approach shots.

My count is eight different greens with water very much in play. This doesn’t account for the water that comes into play on tee shots or the trouble that lurks on the inside of doglegs. It’s a course that will require multiple well-struck shots to find the putting surface in regulation.

📈 Trending Up

Patrick Cantlay — arguably the most well-rested player in the field with only four starts since the U.S. Open. During that stretch he’s earned (3) Top 12 finishes thanks to positive ball-striking returns. He’s gained 9.283 strokes putting over his last 16 rounds and is coming off a T12 in Memphis.

Adam Scott— continues his well-rounded play by gaining +1.56 tee-to-green last week and another +1.22 with the putter. That was good enough to finish T18, which is his worst result in his last three starts. He drives it beautifully and has the game firing on all cylinders.

📉 Trending Down

Ludvig Aberg - is punting strokes both on and around the green, giving back 9.3 strokes in the short-game categories over his last ten rounds. He lost strokes from tee-to-green in Memphis for only the fourth time this year. He might be hitting a wall at the end of a jam packed season.

Shane Lowry - his prolific putting didn’t make it through customs as he’s lost 7.74 strokes putting in his six rounds since returning to the United States. Has lost strokes to the field in 7/10 rounds coming into this week.