🐊 Still Swinging In Florida

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🏆 Last Week’s Optimal Lineup

Austin Eckroat: $6,700 | 128.5 PTS
Min Woo Lee: $9,600 | 119.5 PTS
Erik van Rooyen: $7,400 | 121.0 PTS
Jake Knapp: $8,400 | 101.5 PTS
KH Lee: $6,300 | 101.0 PTS
Shane Lowry: $9,300 | 104.0 PTS
TOTAL: $47,700 | 675.5 PTS

🥐 Oui, Monsieur

It was a few untimely errors — a double on no. 16 on Saturday and a double on no. 18 on Sunday — that kept Matthieu Pavon from putting up another excellent finish.

His T28 last week felt much better than that as he continued to etch his name into the top of the leaderboard. He’s played five PGA TOUR events in 2024, earning (3) Top 7 finishes including his win at Torrey Pines.

His seven starts prior to that all came on the DP World Tour which resulted in another (5) Top 15s including a win in Spain. So to recap:

Last 12 starts:
(2) Wins
(8) Top 15 Finishes
(1) Missed Cut

We should probably be taking him very seriously moving forward.

🥊 Lowry vs. The National

In what seems to be a one-sided heavyweight bout, PGA National has been beating the crap out of Shane Lowry every Sunday that I can remember.

It was another close call for Lowry who played in the final round, shot an even-par 71 and fell to T4.

R1-3s: +2.11/rd in 21 rounds.
R4s: +0.05/rd in seven rounds.

He’s two strokes worse on Sunday than he is the other three days. It’s been a headache for his backers, but just imagine how it must feel for him!

🛋️ Bay McHillroy & Lodge

Rory McIlroy and Bay Hill go together like peanut butter and jelly. They are the data equivalent of ham and eggs.

In 36 rounds at Bay Hill, McIlroy has gained 2.36 strokes/round. There are only eight instances of any golfer gaining 2.22+ strokes per round at any course in as many rounds*. We are talking Spieth at Augusta and Stricker at TPC Deere Run.

This is truly one of the best player/course combinations that you can find.

*dating back to 2008.

📈 Buy Low (?) On Scottie

I know, I know — everything that needs to be said about Scottie Scheffler has already been said. I don’t have much of anything new to add to the head-scratching conversation. I’ll just leave you with this…

In his last start he 1) lost strokes on approach for the first time* in 19 months 2) coughed up 4.4 strokes putting 3) battled the 4th mot difficult field in any event of 2024 and 4) still finished T10.

It’s comical at this point but Scottie is the only one who hasn’t chuckled!

*excludes the TOUR Championship staggered start.

💪 Slump? What Slump?

After an extended slump, I’m ready to declare Cameron Young as — back baby!!

The most important part about his downturn is that he never lost the driver, his best weapon. Over the last 100 rounds, he’s the 10th best driver in the world (+0.59 strokes per round).

Recently, he’s started to plug the other gaps in his game. Now he’s gained strokes on approach in six of his last seven. He’s gained around-the-green in three of six and he’s gained with the putter in two of three.

Add it all up and it’s contributed to (3) Top 8 finishes in his last five starts as he heads to Bay Hill. This should continue to set-up well for Young as Bay Hill has disproportionately rewarded club-head speed and approach play in its recent history.

💴 The Big Sigs

This will be the fourth signature event of the 2024 calendar year. The field sizes and compositions have been very similar so let’s look at the best players in the siggys:

No surprise to see Cantlay, Scheffler and Schauffele near the top of the list. Maybe it’s more surprising to see Jason Day, Luke List and Adam Hadwin also lurking towards the top.

Also, as if picking winners wasn’t difficult enough, none of the three signature event winners appear on this list. (Wyndham Clark, Chris Kirk, Hideki Matsuyama)

🎯 Evenly Spread At The Top

The big boys are getting played in O&Ds this week with the early projected ownership shaping up as:

Rory McIlroy: 15.7%
Scottie Scheffler: 11.3%
Patrick Cantlay: 11.0%

Then there’s another five golfers between 9.5% and 5.5% meaning that the margins are going to be quite small this week!

Above is a screenshot from the PoolGenius tool that I consulted on. I should have listened last week and played Cameron Young — who was my highest rated golfer.

McIlroy and Cantlay headline my best selections with Viktor Hovland coming in third. Hovland is checking in around 8.9% projected ownership which means I could use him as a decent pivot option.

🚜 Louis, Louis

LIV is headed to Hong Kong for the first time in their history, so there’s no tournament record to work off. We are going to take a peek strictly as recent form.

As outlined last week, Joaquin Niemann is lapping the field right now and is pretty clearly the best golfer that LIV has had to offer in 2024.

Very quietly, Louis Oosthuizen has been on a tear. He went back-to-back with wins in December on the DP World Tour and has carried that momentum back to the LIV circuit. He has a T8, 50th and T2 in their three events but also finished runner-up to Carlos Ortiz in Oman.

🟩LIV Masters Odds

Speaking of Niemann, he’s earned himself a spot in the Masters and the PGA Championship. Here are the current Masters odds for the notable LIV golfers:

• +900: Jon Rahm

• +1600: Brooks Koepka

• +2200: Cameron Smith

• +2500: Joaquin Niemann

• +3500: Dustin Johnson, Bryson DeChambeau

• +6500: Tyrrell Hatton, Patrick Reed

• +10000: Phil Mickelson

⏱️Nearing The Deadline

This isn’t the LAST CALL but we are getting dangerously close.

For the first time ever, I’ve partnered with Splash Sports to create a “3 & Done” for THE PLAYERS and the Majors.

• Pick 3 golfers for each event, can only use them once.

• Payouts for full length and for each tournament.

• Fully legal in 40+ states

 🏅 Prop It Like It’s Hot

I’ve been perusing the Underdog Props for this week and these two stood out to me. Feel free to tail or fade: http://bit.ly/UDRick

Adam Scott R1 Strokes: 71.5 (Lower) ⬇️
This feels a bit disrespectful for Scott who has gained 1.88 strokes/round over the last 26 rounds — second best mark in the field. Has also gained strokes in 10 of his last 16 rounds at Bay Hill. Routinely gets off to hot starts here, has picked up 3+ in R1 in five of his last seven trips.

Jordan Spieth R1 Bogeys or Worse: 2.5 (Higher) ⬆️
The man who is capable of making birdie from anywhere and par from anywhere is also capable of making bogey from anywhere. He made 12 bogeys last year en route to a T4, so he can still find great success while putting a few squares on the card.

Tail or Fade: bit.ly/UDRick

⭐ In Case You Missed It

• I have created Major Championship rankings and created a video to help you get ready for all your leagues.

• I discussed O&D Endgame Strategy and how leverage gets magnified each week as the season goes on.

• The Live Leaderboard on RickRunGood.com has gotten an update this week. In addition to being a live shot-by-shot tracker during the event, now it allows you to see course history, recent form, tee times and season stats before the start of the event.