🍖 All Shook Up

📢 Fore, Please…

Alright y’all, I’m looking for some book recommendations. Over the summer, I have blitzed through (nearly) all eight books in the Dungeon Crawler Carl series. If you don’t know what this is … oh momma. It’s like Mad Max meets Hunger Games meets Ready Player One. I didn’t know I was into LitRPG but apparently I am.

As I wind down the most recent book, I am left feeling a void. These books are like 24+ hours of audio listening so I have been locked in for MONTHS. What am I going to do next? I’m hoping you can help.

No genre limitations. If you liked it, send it my way.

Thanks!
Rick

🏆 Last Week’s Optimal Lineup

$8,600: Michael Brennan (142.5)
$7,400: Ben James (127.5)
$7,000: Beau Hossler (127.0)
$7,100: Kevin Yu (111.5)
$9,500: Hideki Matsuyama (111.0)
$6,900: Andrew Novak (110.0)
$46,500: 729.5 Pts

💪 Elite But Different

We are learning something really interesting about Michael Brennan. He’s an elite driver of the golf ball, but it feels different from other elite drivers like Rory McIlroy or Bryson DeChambeau. It’s not necessarily better, it’s just different.

Brennan has two wins on TOUR — Sedgefield CC and Black Desert Resort. These are, statistically, two of the most demanding driving courses on the schedule. Sedgefield is tree-lined with thick rough and Black Desert has literal lava rocks that gobble up wayward shots.

There is a wide range of outcomes off-the-tee at both places which allows Brennan to separate even more than usual. That’s very different from courses that are simply long with thick rough everywhere.

Brennan isn’t a “bomb and gauge” guy as much as he is a true and complete driver. He’s exceedingly long, can work it in both directions, and is accurate enough to make a big difference.

The really scary part is that he’s not a one-tool player. He’s stout on approach and he’s an average putter. If he fixes his short-game at all, he could contend in Major Championships.

🥲 Two Pieces of Pain

I lowkey love TPC Southwind. I do not love being in Memphis in Augusta, but I do love the course. It’s a stout test for the best players in the world and it doesn’t require any tricking out. There are two main things that keep scores in check:

1) The cost of missing the fairway off-the-tee — this is a big one and you’ve probably heard me talk about it 40x already … but it’s a big deal! Every time a golfer misses a fairway at TPC Southwind, it increases their average score by +0.49 strokes. That is a ton! There are only three other courses where the cost of miss is higher.

2) the water on the par-3s — you’re probably thinking, well the par-3s must be a reprieve since the driving task is so difficult. If you were thinking that, you’d be wrong! TPC Southwind has seen more water balls on par-3s than any other course in the ShotLink era.

2,367: TPC Southwind
2,050: PGA National
1,666: Harbour Town
1,458: TPC Sawgrass
917: Muirfield Village

More than the Bear Trap! This course really asks for precision throughout the bag and does not allow for an uncommitted swing. Just for fun, the top-10 players in this field with water balls on par-3s at TPC Southwind:

9: Si Woo Kim
8: JT Poston, Jordan Spieth
7: Harris English, Shane Lowry
6: Corey Conners, Gary Woodland, Russell Henley
5: Justin Rose, Sam Burns

🏆 Playoffs?! (You knew this was coming)

I tweeted out this graphic the other day and was surprised to see Viktor Hovland had gained the most strokes in the playoffs over the last five years. I realize he’s won a FedEx Cup but so have others. The normal Scottie/Rory dominance didn’t exist. In fact, Rory was 7th on the list! That could be in part to others playing more frequently but this list genuinely shocked me.

Below, you’ll see a new table — only with players for this week AND broken out by each leg of the playoffs. Hovland has been the model of consistency, gaining almost exactly the same totals in all three events.

Rory gets off to a slow start but then closes strong.
Sungjae Im gets off to a good start then limps to the finish line.
Tommy has been awesome in a smaller sample.

✋ Five Dollar Footlong

We have a “5 & Done” starting this week which is the same as a “One & Done” but you pick five golfers each week for the next three weeks.

I started tinkering around and the strategy is really fun. Especially when referencing the table above.

Logic dictates that saving Rory for either next week or the TOUR Championship is probably sound. He hasn’t really played well at TPC Southwind in his career, we haven’t seen him since The Open and there’s generally a lot of risk involved there.

But what about Jackson Koivun? Could he actually win this thing? Could he actually contend? I think the answer is yes. He’s 70th in the FedEx Cup Standings so there is no guarantee he will even be around to use after this week. And if he is around, that’s because he had a great finish in Memphis and you probably should have used him!

Then there’s the endless stars like Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, Tommy Fleetwood, Ludvig Aberg, Hideki Matsuayama, etc. etc. Would you be surprised to see any of these guys win a playoff event? No! But they are mostly interchangeable across the three weeks.

The strategy that I’ve mostly settled on:

• Wait on Rory, probably hold for the TOUR Championship

• Two “Fliers” each week

  • This term is used loosely. That doesn’t mean Ricky Castillo, but it means going outside the top 15 and looking for upside (Kitayama, Alex Fitzpatrick, Ben Griffin).

• Be flexible — I have a plan for the next two weeks but I’m not committing to anything now. Why would I? I’ll have more information later.

I’ve already spent more time thinking through these entries than I imagined I would, which is a good sign that this format will be a positive one. If you aren’t signed up yet:

Link to Join: https://bit.ly/SplashRRG

🔮 Looking Into My Crystal Ball

If I could look into my crystal ball and get an answer for anything it wouldn’t be “the price of Bitcoin one year from now”, or “the winning Powerball numbers”, it would be “what version of Alex Smalley are we going to get this week?”.

This man was a buzzsaw in the spring, when he rattled off six straight top-25s. Three of those were top-10s and he damn near won the PGA Championship. His stat profile was aspirational and he was knocking the cover off-the-ball and adding in timely putting. And then came the Memorial.

Smalley started a skid of five events where he failed to make the cut three times and posted a T47 as his best finish. The game was lost. He was doing nothing well.

But! But! He was dynamite in Greensboro last week, finishing T6 and gaining more than eight strokes ball-striking. He looked magnificent and exactly the way he looked this spring. So now what? What version are we getting?

If you have an extra crystal ball handy, please let me know.

🫵 Mark My Words

Well, I told you that I was going to walk into Splash HQ and demand a higher guarantee and that’s exactly what I did. I kicked down the door and said “we’ve been filling this thing 12 hours early! Who do you think you are? I am!”

They quickly cowered and caved to my demands. So this week, we are up to $35,000 in guarantees with the same $25 price point. Help me to not look stupid!

Cheers to y’all for taking good care of us.

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