🐎 Ain't My First Rodeo

📢 Fore, Please:

Taking a leap is scary, but here we go.

Many of you know that “The First Cut” podcast was retired by CBS Sports a few weeks back. It was devastating and, based on the feedback we’ve received, an unpopular decision. We didn’t want to go out like that.

So I’m happy to announce the sequel, The Second Cut podcast, has launched. It’s an independent project that will allow us to do what we do best, cover golf.

This isn’t going to be easy. Realistically, I can only fund this project for so long before we have to figure out a monetization plan but we will worry about that later. What we need now … is you. And your support. Please take an opportunity to subscribe to the YouTube Channel and audio feeds, as well as sharing this project with anyone who you think could be interested. We’re all in this together now — Golly!

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@secondcut
Audio: https://www.buzzsprout.com/2464955

Thanks
Rick

🏅 Last Week’s Optimal Lineup

Min Woo Lee: $9,600 | 139.0 PTS
Gary Woodland: $7,100 | 129.0 PTS
Scottie Scheffler: $12,700 | 123.5 PTS
Sami Valimaki: $6,600 | 114.0 PTS
Alejandro Tosti: $6,700 | 107.5 PTS
Ryan Gerard: $7,200 | 100.0 PTS
TOTAL: $49,900 | 712.0 PTS 

 🦉 Hooters After The Round

Would you rather win $100,000 or play a round of golf with John Daly? How about both.

You can win a free round of golf to play with John Daly and myself.
Plus travel!

The prize pool is nuts, with $100,000 for first. However, simply entering the contest (doesn’t matter your finishing position), will enter you to win that round of golf with John and I. Every contest entry is a chance to win the round of golf.

I don’t know what’s going to happen. Maybe we will shotgun Diet Cokes and head to the casino afterwards. Literally no idea. But it’s going to be a blast!

Join: https://bit.ly/4hUHvIN

🧑‍🍳 Yes, Chef!

Min Woo Lee is an electric factory. That is a fact, it is not debatable.

There are only 13 golfers on TOUR this year who have gained at least four strokes in a round on five different occasions. Those 13 golfers account for a chunk of the wins on TOUR this year.

Minny has six such rounds which is behind only Justin Thomas and Alex Smalley. His elite short-game and ridiculous distance off-the-tee makes him quite dangerous. The caveat is that he needs to reign in his approach play, which has gotten better over the last year. It’ll be fascinating to see what the next 12 months looks like for MWL.

🏆 Right Where We Want Them

The top two players in the world couldn’t be in a better place heading into the year’s first Major Championship.

Let’s start with Rory McIlroy who will enter the Masters in his second best form ever. That is highlighted by a +2.3 SG/rd average since January 1st, two wins, and no finish worse than T17. His ball-striking in 2025 has been the third-best in the field and his short-game is the 4th best. What could possibly go wrong?

Mr. Scheffler just notched his best finish of the calendar year (T2) where he picked up 7.10 (!!) strokes putting. That’s the second best putting event of his career. In his 20 career rounds at Augusta National, Scheffler has gained 56.97 strokes from tee-to-green which is as absurd as it sounds.

These two are being priced accordingly, as the two favorites to win — Scheffler (+350) and McIlroy (+650).

🤬 The Curse of High Expectations

Expectations are high for Corey Conners whenever he steps onto the property at TPC San Antonio. Not only is he a two-time winner here but he’s picked up 2.32 strokes per round in his 20 rounds at the venue, which is the best mark of anyone in the world in at least eight rounds.

How does Corey fare when expectations are high? For this exercise, I compared his fantasy salary and his strokes gained total for the last two years. Salary is more readily available and would reflect the betting markets for the week.

Those dogs on the far right of the viz indicate good weeks for CC — the edge being +3 strokes per round. Many of those weeks are when he is under $8,000 on DraftKings and almost certainly under $10,000.

As Conners creeps above $9,000, his performances start to get more spread out and skew closer to TOUR average. Three of his five worst performances during this stretch have come with a price tag over $9,000. His salary for this week? $10,100.

🌀 The Calm Before The Storm

Sometimes I feel bad for the Texas Open. It’s produced some really fun events, with last year’s being literally historic.

However, the second the ball touches the cup to end the event, everyone will declare it Masters Week and move on to Augusta.

There’s a different feel for these “lead-in events” — played the week before a Major. Some guys are trying their last shot at glory to get into the field while others are getting their final prep in order.

Having success in these events can require an additional level of focus and LITIM (Living In The Moment). Corey Conners, Akshay Bhatia and Tommy Fleetwood have been excellent at this task since the start of 2019. They all boast a +1.6 SG/rd average or better in at least 22 rounds.

🤑 Expected Value

I’m always tinkering with new projects and ideas so let me share one with you right now. I wanted a way to better compare golfers to each other for one & done purposes. For me, the best way to do that is to determine the “Expected Value'“ for each golfer if the tournament was played an infinite number of times.

That was the idea, but I’ll settle for 1,000 simulations for now.

I already do the simulations on the Tournament Predictor on RickRunGood.com so that part was easy. Then I loaded in the pay table for the Texas Open ($9,500,000 with 18% going to first). Now for each simulation, along with a finishing position, I could also append the amount of money earned for that finishing position.

After 1,000 simulations these are the average expected values for the field. It’s interesting to see some things like Denny McCarthy having a higher win rate than Patrick Cantlay but Cantlay has a higher expected value. That’s because Cantlay’s floor is higher and he’s earning a good chunk of money more frequently than McCarthy who is going to miss the cut (or finish poorly) a lot more frequently than Patty Ice.

These earnings values will be included on the Tournament Predictor tool on a weekly basis moving forward.

🌎 Coming To America

LIV Golf will make their American debut this season, playing in Miami this week. This will be the 21st event state-side since LIV’s inception. The two best players in America are the two newest members of LIV Golf and neither are American!

Jon Rahm has stood alone at the top of these leaderboards, picking up 2.72 strokes per round. That’s more than twice the amount of Dustin Johnson who is the third best player in America. Of course, Johnson has also played nearly 3x as many events as Rahm and has 4x as many wins.