🏃‍♂️ End Of Season Sprint

📢 Fore, Please:

• Big news out of Canada — Splash Sports is now operating “North of the Border” and you can start joining contests right now. 🍁

• That included the 3M Open Listener League which has been bumped up AGAIN — now at $7,000 of guaranteed money.

• I’ve been making vlog style videos for members on my YouTube Channel and I have ~8 more planned for the rest of the year. Here’s a look at my recent vlog which is 24 hours with me in Las Vegas.

🏆 Last Week’s Optimal Lineup

Xander Schauffele: $11,200 | 100.5 PTS
Billy Horschel: $6,500 | 90.0 PTS
Justin Rose: $6,900 | 84.0 PTS
Thriston Lawrence: $5,700 | 82.5 PTS
Shane Lowry: $8,200 | 80.0 PTS
Russell Henley: $6,700 | 79.0 PTS
TOTAL: $45,200 | 516.0 PTS

😵 One & Done (Emphasis on the “DONE”)

It was a shockingly bad week for the chalk O&D selections — with six of the seven most popular picks all missing the cut. Those six accounted for 69% of all entries. The combined earnings of the top-12 most selected golfers was just $756,208 — a mere 4.4% of the $17M prize purse.

There has only been one other event this year where the 12-most selected golfers earned less than last week and that was the Puerto Rico Open. However, that purse was only $4,000,000 so those results actually accounted for 2x the percentage of purse won.

❎ Now I Know Why Elon Spent $44B To Build ‘X’

Xander Schauffele made his Major Championship debut at Erin Hills in 2017 and promptly finished T5. That began a run of Major Championship success that is unmatched.

Since Schauffele made his debut, He’s played 30 Majors, earning (2) wins and (15) Top 10s while picking up 2.07 strokes per round on the field.

Scottie Scheffler has a better SG TOT number (+2.38) but Schauffele has played in 10 more majors.

Brooks Koepka has three more wins but Schauffele has one more Top 10 and a better SG TOT number.

Rory McIlroy has one more Top 10 but two fewer wins and a worse SG TOT number.

This illustrates how great both Brooks Koepka and Xander Schauffele have been in Majors Championships over the last seven years.

🏰 Chalk Comes Through

This Major Championship season was one of the “chalkiest” in history. When looking from an odds perspective, there wasn’t a single longshot winner to be found.

Scheffler won the Masters at +500.
Xander won the PGA Championship at +1400.
Bryson won the U.S. Open at +2000.
Xander won The Open at +1200.

Even crazier, the three best players in Majors this year won all of them. Schauffele, Scheffler and DeChambeau finished 1-2-3 in total Strokes Gained this Major Season.

For context, in 2023 — neither of the two best Majors players (Scheffler & Hovland) won and the four big ones were won by the 3rd-best, 4th-best, 18th-best and 24th-best golfers.

In 2022 — neither of the two best Majors players (McIlroy & Zalatoris) won and the four big ones were won by the 3rd-best, 4th-best, 5th-best and 23rd-best golfers.

I could go on, but you get the point.

🎪 The Show Must Go ON

There’s no rest for the weary as we turn the jets and head straight to Blaine, Minnesota. Since the 3M Open debuted in 2019, Tony Finau has taken a liking to TPC Twin Cities at a rate that few others can boast.

In his 20 rounds at this course, he’s +2.39/round which is one of the best golfer/course combinations in the world since 2019.

There are only six better golfer/course combinations than Finau at TPC Twin Cities. This required 20+ rounds since 2019. His +2.39 rate is identical to Max Homa at Riviera and it narrowly edges out Xander Schauffele (+2.35) at TPC Scottsdale.

🥸 Eye Test Versus Stats

If you look at only the winners here over the years, you might think this is a bomber’s paradise — thanks to Tony Finau, Cameron Champ and Matthew Wolff. However, the numbers tell a different story.

Running a regression model of all players in the field, there is a much stronger correlation to success with driving accuracy than with driving distance. This could be explained by the water lurking off-the-tee and the big hitters being able to club-down for precision. The numbers are quite clear on this.

Of the (14) par-4s or par-5s, ten of them have a larger missed fairway penalty than the reward for hitting a long drive. Obviously it would be great to be long and accurate but, statistically, if you can only be one — hitting every fairway is better than missing every fairway but being longer than field average.

📖 LIV Stays In The UK

LIV Golf is back on again this week, playing at the JCB Golf & Country Club for the first time. That’s located in England about midway between Manchester and Birmingham (I am just reading a map, I don’t actually know any of this).

I find the nature of the LIV Schedule so fascinating as they plot a more global tour than the PGA TOUR circuit. It creates a situation where some guys are significantly better outside the United States and vice-versa.

Above are all the LIV Golf results but only for non-US based events. Jon Rahm has never finished outside the Top 10 in these events while Niemann, Koepka and Gooch all have multiple wins.

The most surprising aspect is DeChambeau’s global struggles. He’s gaining “only” 0.96 strokes to the field with a 28.6% Top 10 rate. His Top 10 rate doubles (64.7%) in U.S. based events and he has three victories in the states.

👴 Blandy Is Still Kickin’

Richard Bland has asserted himself in Senior Major Championships this year, snapping off and winning both the U.S. Senior Open and the Senior PGA Championship. His solid play has carried over to the LIV circuit where he has finished T24, T9 and T14 in his last three starts. It’s also not lost on me that he grew up a mere 21 miles (33 km) away from the JCB Golf & Country Club.

🥱 The Jetlag Narrative

I would be really, really impressed if Billy Horschel could overcome a wet, soggy, and emotional Major Championship then fly through eight time zones and play well again at the 3M Open. I suppose it’s not impossible, but I’m willing to bet he gets off to a slow start.

Tail (or fade): https://play.underdogfantasy.com/es-yZR00w8PND

Sam Burns ejected on Sunday at Royal Troon, which isn’t the worst thing in the world but just shows how volatile he can be on a regular basis. There’s tons of water and big numbers lurking for him.

Theegala is a baller but he hasn’t been able to solve TPC Twin Cities. He’s 0-3 in making cuts here and it just might not fit his eye.

These three R1 props together would return 4.39x on your investment.

Tail (or fade): https://play.underdogfantasy.com/es-yZR00w8PND

📺 All Things 3M Open

My weekly tournament preview uses data to cover the course, field and so much more. It can be found on my YouTube page and the direct link is below:

⭐ Before You Go …

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