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And just like that — it’s January. A fresh start with nothing but hope lying ahead.
I’ve had my head down for the last few weeks, working hard to make both subtle and obvious improvements to the RickRunGood ecosystem. Now it’s time to focus on the task at hand — 59 golfers on Maui battling for a whale-shaped trophy.
Thanks so much for all the support — let’s get started.
Rick
PS — There are over 15,500 (!!) nerdy golf people who read this newsletter. You can join them by subscribing below.
👽 Putt For Dough & Drive For NOTHING!
If I were to be randomly added to the field at The Sentry this week, Scottie Scheffler and I would play our second shots from basically the same locations. Okay — that’s a bit of an exaggeration but let me explain:
The Plantation Course collects tee shots and puts them in a nice tidy little pile better than any other course on the TOUR schedule.
Dispersion of Tee Shots From 2023
It creates a situation where Scottie Scheffler only has a little edge over JJ Spaun off-the-tee when he normally has a massive edge. Now it turns into a second shot contest with the best wedge players separating themselves from the field.
🎯 Kapalua and it’s Wedge Play
On paper, the Plantation Course at Kapalua checks in at a staggering 7,600 yards. However, it doesn’t play anywhere near that distance thanks to the extreme undulation, lack of rough, and massive rollout.
In fact, 42% of all approach shots last year came from inside 100 yards — an amount significantly more than the TOUR average. The next bucket, 100-125 yards, also came in above average meaning that over half the approach shots came from 125 yards or closer.
🏌️♀️ Best Players From those Ranges
So obviously, the question becomes — who is the best from 125 yards and in (with an emphasis on <100 yards)?
There are a few ways to look at that. Let’s start with proximity…
The Best:
Scottie Scheffler: 33.05’
Patrick Cantlay: 33.73’
Cam Davis: 34.66’
Sungjae Im: 34.72’
Rory McIlroy: 35.30’
The Worst:
Kurt Kitayama: 63.57’
Justin Rose: 62.7’
Davis Riley: 62.48’
Matt Wallace: 59.99’
Sam Burns: 59.43’
I’d like to go one step deeper and see how often a golfer is giving themselves a realistic birdie opportunity. It doesn’t matter how close your proximity is if you never give yourself a chance to put a circle on the scorecard. Below are the golfers who hit these wedges to 15’ or closer:
💸 All The Leagues!
If you’re looking to compete in some type of golfer contest this year … I got you! Below is the information and links you’ll need to participate in (2) different One & Done leagues as well as a Season Long Fantasy League.
Global One & Done Hosted on RunGoodGolf.com
My personal attempt to make a worldwide, OAD leaderboard with divisions, user profiles, full stat-tracking and more. It’s $39 for the season with an emphasis on universal ranking and not prizes (though, prizes do exist).
Current Signups: 661
U.S. Based ‘Big Money’ One & Done Host on SplashSports
This is a regulated contest, available in 41 different states. First place will be as high as $30,000 with payouts for the top 15% of the entrants. The buy-in is $150 and you can have up to five entries. This is limited to 2,200 users so please get your spots soon. This is being hosted on SplashSports, which we used for weekly contests and NFL Survivor.
Current Signups: 230
Season Long Fantasy Leagues on Fantrax
If you want to play in a league, please take the initiative to create a league.
Go to Fantrax and create a golf league
Use these rules: https://bit.ly/3v1DTl9
Post your league in this spreadsheet, so others can join:
Keep your entry on the spreadsheet updated with how many spots are open.
Enjoy!
🐶 Who Let The Dogs In?!
I’m thrilled to partner up with Underdog Fantasy in 2024 to create golf content and hopefully win as much money from them as possible (sorry, UD partner team).
The reason I love Underdog is because they have both pick’em style games AND draft style games. That means we can lean into weekly golf drafts and best ball golf contests. Those unsuspecting UD users won’t know what hit them when we roll into those golf contests.
Each Wednesday on the Live Chat, I’ll have a dedicated Underdog segment where we can draft teams together and talk through the strategy about building the best squads for that week. I always love to see the innovation of golf fantasy in this space and Underdog is helping to lead the way.
For now, I’ll leave you with a few things.
1) Please sign-up at Underdog using the code “RICK” which will earn you up to a $100 deposit match.
2) Here are a few statistical items worth considering for this week:
Cameron Young R1: 5.5 Birdies or Better (Higher) ⬆️
Young has made the most birdies or better per round (7.5) of anyone in this field. He’s never made fewer than six birdies and his production is not tied to his score. For example, he made six birdies in R1 last year (70) and seven in R2 (70).
Keegan Bradley R1: 5.0 Birdies or Better (Lower) ⬇️
I obviously wish this was 5.5 but it still warrants consideration. In eight rounds at the Plantation Course, Bradley has made exactly five birdies once and never matched or exceeded that total in any other round. He averages 3.5 birdies or better.
Tony Finau R1: 69.0 Strokes (Lower) ⬇️
Finau has scored 69 or lower in four straight rounds at Kapalua and in seven of his last eight. Of golfers with at least 16 rounds played here, he has the 3rd best scoring average in the field.
Rickie Fowler R1: 5.5 Birdies or Better (Lower) ⬇️
Fowler hasn’t played this event since 2020 but it’s still worth noting that he has made exactly six birdies twice (his max), while averaging 4.5 per round. I think his Higher 69.0 strokes is also interesting.
📈 Make The Case For…
Brendon Todd: His lack of distance is not penalized here, he’s one of the best wedge players and putters on Earth, and now he adds Paul Tesori to his bag for a little extra morale boost.
Collin Morikawa: One-win Collin has the same stat profile as six-win Collin; he’s deadly from every single wedge bucket, and he’s never finished worse than T7 in four trips.
Eric Cole: Perpetual Top 10 finisher whose only weakness is his lack of distance and accuracy off-the-tee, elite from 125 yards and in, streaky putter.
📉Make The Case Against…
Viktor Hovland (sorry!): One of his best weapons (driver) gets neutralized, 86th in TOUR from 50-125 yards, has lost eight strokes putting in (12) rounds at the Plantation Course.
Cameron Young: 2023 was a disaster with little evidence of a turnaround, capable of losing multiple strokes on approach, around-the-green and with the putter, split from Paul Tesori is … TBD.
Lucas Glover: For a guy with a putting resurgence, he’s lost strokes with the flatstick in five of his last nine. Didn’t play well in the fall and lost eight strokes putting at this event in 2022.
❓Trivia
Over the course of Tiger Woods’ 82 career PGA TOUR wins, 83 different golfers have finished runner-up to him. With five each, which two golfers are tied for the most runner-up finishes to Tiger Woods?
Answer at bottom.
👂Help Me, Help You!
In 2024, you’re going to see more content from me than ever — with an emphasis on this email newsletter. If there is a question you’ve always wondered, a problem you’ve been unable to solve, or a deep-dive into any golf topic you want — let me know! Hit reply and tell me how I can help.
😋 Give Me More Content!
You can read more about the statistical profile at Kapalua in my written preview on RickRunGood.com.
My first YouTube Preview of the year is now live, which is nearly an hour of me saying the word “phenomenal”.
Join me on Wednesday at 3PM ET for The Sentry Live Chat — where I’ll answer your questions and cover so much more.
Trivia Answer:
Ernie Els & Vijay Singh
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